Ukraine needs to strike launchers, not just intercept missiles — how to change the fight against Russian ballistic missiles – expert opinion
Kyiv • UNN
Ukraine has limited capabilities to destroy Russian launchers, especially on the territory of the Russian Federation. Experts believe that the emergence of its own ballistic missiles could radically change the situation.
Russia’s latest massive strike on Kyiv once again demonstrated one of the main problems facing Ukraine’s air defense – a shortage of means to intercept ballistic missiles. Against this backdrop, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the military should focus on destroying the enemy’s launchers themselves. How realistic this is, what tools Ukraine already has, what role its own ballistic capabilities and the latest developments of Ukraine’s defense industry may play, and whether the situation can be expected to improve this winter – senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Anton Zemlyanyi discussed this in an exclusive comment to UNN.
Destroying launchers – the capabilities exist, but they are still limited
After another large-scale attack on Kyiv, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that one of the main areas of work for the Defense Forces should be the direct destruction of Russian launchers before the missiles are launched.
Zelenskyy: Ukraine will destroy the Russians’ ballistic launchers05.08.26, 18:49 • 8344 views
According to Anton Zemlyanyi, Ukraine has already proven that it is capable of striking such targets, but for now this mainly concerns temporarily occupied territories.
"Ukraine has such capabilities. We have already seen cases of successful strikes on transporter-erector-launchers and transporter-loader vehicles in the south of Ukraine. But it is important to understand that these capabilities are very limited by the technical characteristics of our systems and by the enemy’s serious countermeasures," the expert said.
He explained that in the temporarily occupied territories, Ukrainian forces have considerably more opportunities to conduct such operations.
"In the occupied territories, we know the terrain well, have established drone flight routes, and some areas are not as saturated with Russian air defense. In addition, Ukrainian drones can effectively use Starlink there, which provides high-quality communications and significantly increases the effectiveness of strikes," Zemlyanyi explained.
Russian territory – a significantly more difficult task
According to the analyst, the situation is entirely different directly on Russian territory, from where most ballistic missile launches against Ukrainian cities are carried out.
"Starlink does not work on Russian territory. Accordingly, we cannot use drones with a satellite communications link as effectively as in the occupied territories. This significantly complicates the detection and destruction of mobile launchers," he noted.
The expert emphasizes that the extremely high mobility of Russian systems is an additional problem.
"Ballistic systems deploy very quickly, carry out a launch, and leave the position almost immediately. This is a very short ‘window’ during which they can be detected and struck. Because of their speed characteristics, drones often simply cannot physically do this in time," Zemlyanyi explained.
At the same time, Russia actively protects such areas with air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, and its own means of detecting Ukrainian drones.
"A multilayered protection system has been established around the areas where the launch systems are based. Air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, and radar stations operate there. Any Ukrainian drone approaching such areas practically immediately comes into the view of Russian defenses," he noted.
Ukrainian ballistic capabilities could radically change the situation
In Zemlyanyi’s view, the emergence of Ukraine’s own ballistic capabilities could become the factor that would make it possible to systematically hunt Russian missile systems. He notes that military experts today are increasingly speaking specifically about the need to develop Ukraine’s own long-range missile weapons.
"At present, the most realistic way to solve this problem is the emergence of Ukrainian ballistic capabilities. They alone are capable of significantly changing the situation and making it possible to operate more effectively against the locations where Russian missile systems are based and deployed," the expert said.
He separately mentioned Ukrainian developments that are currently receiving significant attention.
"We can talk about promising Ukrainian projects, in particular the developments by Fire Point – the FP-7 and FP-9, as well as the prospects for the Sapsan missile system. It is precisely such systems that could potentially significantly enhance Ukraine’s capabilities to strike enemy launchers," Zemlyanyi noted.
At the same time, he emphasized that accurate information about the status of these programs remains classified.
"Personally, I do not have information about the specific stage of readiness of these systems, as this is highly sensitive information. Obviously, work is ongoing and tests are being conducted, but what stage exactly they are at and when they may move to serial production is not currently public," the expert said.
Could Storm Shadows and attack drones help?
The possibility of promptly striking launchers with cruise missiles, in particular Storm Shadows, was a separate topic of discussion. According to Zemlyanyi, even if the Russian systems remain in position for about 30 minutes, implementing such a scenario is extremely difficult.
"I would speak not only about cruise missiles, but also about jet-powered drones, which are effectively a cheaper analogue of cruise missiles and are almost as fast in flight. But the problem is that the Russians have a very powerful countermeasure system – electronic warfare, air defense, and radar systems. All of this significantly reduces the effectiveness of such strikes," he explained.
In addition, the launch of cruise missiles also has its own specifics.
"If Ukrainian Su-24s take off to deploy Storm Shadows, Russian radars detect this even before the aircraft reach the launch area. The information is transmitted instantly, after which the launchers simply change position. At the same time, Russian aircraft take off and air-defense systems become active. Therefore, even cruise missiles do not guarantee a successful strike specifically against mobile ballistic systems," Zemlyanyi noted.
The hardest winter is still ahead
The analyst does not hide the fact that the upcoming heating season will be one of the most difficult throughout the full-scale war.
"There is no point in talking about an easy winter at all. Our main task is to get through this period with minimal losses and preserve the operability of the energy system. The situation will be extremely difficult," he said.
Zemlyanyi identifies the shortage of interceptor missiles as the main problem.
"Today, the biggest challenge is the shortage of missiles for air- and missile-defense systems. The Ukrainian leadership is working to resolve this issue, and most likely we will still receive certain packages of missiles from our partners. In addition, the transfer of an SAMP/T system is expected, but the main question is how many missiles for it will actually be transferred," the expert noted.
At the same time, he stressed that even new deliveries would not be able to fully resolve the problem.
"We need to speak honestly – the number of missiles we may receive will still not be sufficient. That is why the President of Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized that we need to strike not only the missiles themselves, but primarily their carriers, launchers, production sites, and supply chains for components," Zemlyanyi said.
According to him, long-range strikes against enterprises of Russia’s military-industrial complex are already demonstrating their effectiveness.
"The strikes on enterprises in Cheboksary, the Progress plant, and other defense-industry enterprises show that this is the right direction. We are unlikely to be able to destroy the entire Russian military-industrial complex, but seriously disrupting production, logistics, and the supply of components is entirely realistic," the expert emphasized.
Could allies be deliberately restricting Ukraine?
Anton Zemlyanyi also commented separately on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that some partners may be deliberately limiting the transfer of missile-defense capabilities to Ukraine, attempting to make Kyiv more accommodating in negotiations.
According to the expert, such a scenario does not seem far-fetched.
"Entirely possible. If we look honestly at the history of military assistance to Ukraine since 2022, we will see that it was very often provided in measured amounts. During some successful operations, Ukraine even received smaller aid packages than during periods of relative calm. There have already been such examples," he noted.
At the same time, in his view, the situation now differs substantially from the first years of the war.
"Today, Ukraine has significantly stronger negotiating positions than it did a year or two ago. We have managed to substantially increase our long-range strike capabilities and are inflicting serious losses on Russia's military and economic infrastructure. That is precisely why, in my conviction, attempts to force Ukraine into some unfavorable concessions are unlikely to succeed. But the policy of measured assistance itself, unfortunately, remains entirely realistic, and it directly affects the number of casualties among the Ukrainian population," summarized Anton Zemlianyi, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.