The NBU has specified the timeline for the return of Ukrainians from abroad, linking it to improvements in the labor market and a drop in unemployment to 9%
Kyiv • UNN
An outflow of 0.2 million people is expected in 2026, with the return of migrants anticipated to begin in 2027. Unemployment will fall to 9% amid rising real wages.
The National Bank of Ukraine suggests that the net outflow of the population in 2026 will be about 0.2 million people, but expects a reversal of negative migration trends in the following years and a gradual improvement in the labor market situation with a decrease in unemployment and an increase in wages, according to the quarterly Inflation Report by the NBU, UNN reports.
The NBU assumes that the net outflow of the population in 2026 will be about 0.2 million people. At the same time, the forecast assumptions are based on calculations regarding the "net" return of migrants, which will begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people), and in 2028 this process will intensify (0.5 million people), in particular, given the expected reduction in security risks and the general improvement of the economic situation
As stated in the report, "in the context of the recovery of economic activity, the labor market will require a significant number of workers."
High demand for labor will contribute to a further reduction in unemployment and support wage increases. According to the NBU forecast, unemployment will drop to 10% this year, and in the following years it will be about 9%. Real wages will grow by more than 11% in 2026 and by 6-7% annually in 2027-2028
Other key indicators
Key indicators of the NBU Inflation Report:
- inflation in 2026 will accelerate to 9.4%, and from next year it will begin to decline: to 6.5% at the end of 2027 and to 5% in 2028;
- economic recovery this year will slow down to 1.3%, but will accelerate in the following years to 2.8–3.7% per year;
- the budget deficit will gradually narrow from 19% of GDP this year to 18% in 2027 and 11% in 2028. International aid will remain the key source of financing the budget deficit.
- The NBU assumes that Ukraine will receive about 53 billion USD from international partners in 2026, 42 billion USD in 2027, and 22 billion USD in 2028. International reserves will be sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market – 60–67 billion USD in 2026–2028.
The baseline scenario of the forecast, the NBU indicated, takes into account the current consequences of shelling and destruction and sufficient volumes of external financing. It is based on assumptions about the gradual normalization of conditions for the functioning of Ukraine's economy, the temporary nature of the acute phase of the war in the Middle East and, accordingly, a decrease in oil prices from the second half of 2026.