How the war in the Middle East fills the Kremlin's budget
Kyiv • UNN
Escalation around Iran has raised oil prices, bringing Russia hundreds of millions of dollars daily. Sanctions and Ukrainian strikes limit export capabilities.
The war in the Middle East, particularly around Iran, is already affecting global energy markets and bringing Russia additional revenue from oil exports. This could hit Ukraine and give Russia additional opportunities to wage war.
According to The Telegraph, rising prices allow the Kremlin to earn hundreds of millions of dollars daily. At the same time, despite the financial effect, Russia cannot fully take advantage of this situation - and Ukraine and sanctions play a key role here. Financial analyst Viktor Halchynskyi also spoke about this in a comment for UNN.
Amid the escalation in the Middle East, global oil prices are rising due to supply risks, particularly due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This automatically plays into the hands of Russia, which remains one of the key exporters of energy resources.
According to estimates, the Kremlin's revenues in the last month alone could have doubled – from approximately $12 billion to $24 billion. Thus, even a partial increase in oil prices is directly converted into financing the war against Ukraine.
However, as the expert notes, this effect has its limitations.
In the short term, Russia can benefit from this story. Some oil tankers are simply standing at sea and waiting for an opportunity to sell their cargo. If there is a chance to do so, Russia will get money for it.
This refers primarily to the so-called "shadow fleet" - tankers that are used to circumvent sanctions and are often forced to stand idle due to logistical and legal restrictions. That is, the Kremlin cannot use the situation to the maximum.
Russia will not be able to use this to its full potential due to the limited capacity of alternative export routes and limitations in its own tanker fleet.
An additional factor remains Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which reduce processing and export capabilities. Attacks on oil depots, refineries, and logistics hubs create systemic restrictions that prevent Russia from quickly increasing supplies even in a favorable price environment.
In addition, the instability of sea routes and partial blocking of logistics also affect export volumes. Some tankers physically cannot deliver oil on time or are forced to change routes, which increases costs and reduces efficiency.
Thus, the war in the Middle East indeed creates a "window of opportunity" for Russia - rising oil revenues partially compensate for sanctions pressure and allow financing the war. However, this is not a full-fledged economic breakthrough.
On the contrary, the situation looks like a limited bonus - Russia earns more than before, but significantly less than it could without sanctions, Ukrainian strikes, and logistics problems. And these factors prevent the Kremlin from fully converting the energy crisis into a strategic advantage on the front.