How the EU can "bypass" Orban and unblock €90 billion for Ukraine

Ukraine may receive the blocked 90 billion euros in aid from the European Union despite Hungary's resistance (in particular, its Prime Minister Viktor Orbán), and there are several scenarios for this. Ivan Us, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, expressed this opinion in an exclusive comment to UNN.

The economist noted that in the Ukrainian public space, the problem is often reduced to Hungary's position, but, in his opinion, the European Union has several mechanisms to circumvent the blocking.

The first option, according to him, had been implemented before. Us recalled the situation last year, when it was about the distribution of funds with a clearly defined purpose. At that time, a country that did not participate in the financing of a specific amount could not actually claim a decisive influence in this matter.

The second mechanism, which the expert spoke about, is the legal instruments of the European Union itself. Us referred to provisions which, given a certain political will, allow a member state to be deprived of its voting rights.

As soon as a country is deprived of its voting rights, it automatically loses the right to veto. That is, everyone says that it is Orbán's veto. So it (Hungary, - ed.) can be deprived of the right to veto

At the same time, the economist is convinced that the issue has long since moved from the legal to the political plane, since the European Parliament, according to him, has expressed its position, while the final promotion of the decision depends on the Council of the EU.

The third scenario, which Us talks about, involves bilateral agreements between individual states and Kyiv outside the general superstructure of EU institutions. He drew attention to publications about the agreed approaches of some European countries to separate financing for Ukraine.

Individual European Union countries that have agreed to give money to Ukraine do so on a bilateral basis

According to his assessment, such a format theoretically allows for a faster decision, but the European Union itself is not interested in replacing the institutional mechanism with situational agreements between states.

That is why Brussels is not currently forcing harsh steps, although it has the tools to do so. Ivan Us suggested that the EU expects political changes in Hungary and does not want to finally move the conflict into a phase of open forceful pressure within the Union until then.

At the same time, the economist drew attention to another important signal: Budapest is increasingly facing limited access to some European resources. This, in his opinion, demonstrates that the EU has levers of influence and is already beginning to use them in the financial sphere.

You receive money, you are not a donor, you are a recipient, that is, receiving money from the EU budget is important for you, and if there is none, you have problems

However, despite the existence of several scenarios, the key factor, according to Us, remains the position of the International Monetary Fund. It is the Fund's conclusion, he believes, that will determine the readiness of other partners to unblock their programs.

Everyone is waiting for the IMF, that when the IMF gives the green light that reforms will move forward, accordingly, other issues that are frozen will also be unfrozen

He emphasized that for international partners, the IMF's decision is a financial benchmark and an indicator of the state's institutional capacity to fulfill its obligations. In his opinion, all cooperation programs are now actually brought into a single coordinate system, where the Fund's conclusion affects a wider range of decisions regarding Ukraine.

I combined all these cooperation programs for myself, the IMF, the European Union

Context

In February 2026, the European Parliament approved a loan for Ukraine of 90 billion euros for 2026–2027 to support the state budget and defense. Of this amount, €30 billion will be allocated for macro-financial assistance, and €60 billion for the purchase of military equipment.

The purpose of the aid is to ensure the state budget and strengthen defense capabilities through the purchase of military equipment, according to information on the European Integration portal. Funding requires Ukraine to continue fighting corruption, strengthening democracy and the rule of law.

However, this payment is currently blocked at the initiative of Hungary. In particular, by the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Earlier, UNN already wrote about how problems with international financing will affect the country's economy and the lives of Ukrainians.