Heatwave could kill more than 2 million Europeans by the end of the century - study

Climate change could increase the number of heat-related deaths in Europe by 2.3 million people by 2099, scientists have calculated, writes UNN with reference to Euronews.

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This was found out by participants in a study from the Environmental and Health Modeling (EHM) Laboratory at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), which is published in the journal Nature Medicine.

“The study provides compelling evidence that a sharp increase in heat-related deaths would far exceed any decrease in cold-related deaths, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,” notes Prof. Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the paper and head of the EHM Laboratory at LSHTM.

His team estimates that “climate change could lead to more than 2.3 million additional heat-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099.” However, according to the researchers, 70 percent of these tragedies can be avoided if rapid action is taken to heal the planet.

Barcelona is projected to have the highest number of temperature-related deaths by the end of the century, with 246,082. It is followed by Rome with a projected 147,738 deaths and Naples with 147,248. Fourth on the list is the Spanish city of Madrid (129,716), with Milan (110,131) in fifth place. Next are Athens with a projected 87,523 deaths, Valencia (67,519), Marseille (51,306), Bucharest (47,468) and Genoa (36,338).

Researchers note that the peak of deaths is predicted in the most densely populated Mediterranean cities. But smaller towns in Malta, Spain and Italy may also be affected.

As you move further away from the Mediterranean, the effects will be less severe. In other European capitals, such as Paris, there may be a smaller but still significant increase in deaths, both from cold and heat.

In the North, the British Isles and Scandinavia, a net decrease in the number of deaths related to ambient temperature is possible, according to the study. For example, projected figures for London show a 27,455 reduction in the number of deaths by the end of the century.

But as the researchers point out, this plus is far outweighed by the minuses of the rest of Europe, where a combined total of more than 2 million additional deaths are possible.

It is noted that only significant and rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can reduce the number of deaths from extreme heat. “Our results underscore the urgent need to actively mitigate climate change,” notes Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study in the EHM-Lab at LSHTM. - This is particularly important for the Mediterranean, where, if nothing is done, the consequences could be dire.

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