Most Ukrainian refugees in Poland are unlikely to return home, even if Ukraine reaches a ceasefire agreement with Russia, as they are already "well integrated" into the Polish labor market. This is reported by Reuters with reference to data from the international agency Fitch Ratings, transmitted by UNN.
Details
It is noted that Poland hosts about 1 million Ukrainian refugees, who have helped "fuel" Poland's strained labor market and stimulate economic growth. According to Fitch Ratings analysts, this trend will continue.
They have integrated very well into the Polish labor market. So even if a ceasefire is announced tomorrow, we don't see many Ukrainian refugees returning to Ukraine. We are almost certain that a significant portion of these people will remain in Poland and contribute to the growth of the Polish labor market and GDP and, of course, other macroeconomic and fiscal indicators.
Fitch analysts forecast Poland's economic growth at 3% in 2025–2026 and 3.1% in 2027, while the country's government expects figures of 3.4%, 3.5%, and 3% respectively.
In addition, the Polish government hopes that economic growth will help "curb the inflated budget deficit," which stood at 6.6% of GDP last year. The country previously committed to reducing it to below 3% by 2028.
Milan Trajkovic described Poland's budget deficit last year as a "much worse starting point" and added that it is likely to remain at around 6.6% of GDP this year. He forecasts that the deficit could decrease to approximately 4-4.5% of GDP by 2028.
"This is the fastest growing European economy for decades. And... one thing you know about Poland is that Poland will grow," the analyst emphasized.
Recall
From November 1, collective accommodation centers for refugees from Ukraine in Poland will accept only representatives of protected groups. For other refugees, the "Together for Independence" program is planned, with subsidies for rent and Polish language courses.