Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov assessed the situation at the front and the enemy's capabilities and touched upon the issue of withdrawal from Avdiivka in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, UNN reports.
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According to Budanov, Russia's professional army was largely destroyed in the first year of the invasion, meaning it now throws untrained conscripts into suicide attacks. It is using more artillery shells than it can make, and although it put hundreds of tanks into service last year, most of them were old models taken from the warehouse and repaired, and only 178 were new. It is noted that missile attacks on Ukrainian cities have stopped in recent weeks as Russian supplies have been depleted.
As a result, according to Budanov, Russia "will have to fight to achieve its main strategic goal - to capture all the territories of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions this year." "They don't have the strength," Budanov said.
A recent study by the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, found that Russia's armed forces are likely to peak by the end of the year, and then in 2025 they will increasingly face shortages of ammunition and armored vehicles.
The publication also points to another issue: additional support for Ukraine by the United States, blocked by Republicans in Congress.
"Will they be prepared to provide us with supplies for the full year while we are preparing or not?" Budanov said. "It’s an interesting question."
At the same time, Budanov is quoted as saying that the Russian armed forces have 510,000 troops in and around Ukraine and can recruit about 30,000 people a month.
Budanov also tried to put the Russian capture of Avdiivka in a broader context. According to him, it took the Russian army almost two years of heavy attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion to take the city. According to other estimates, it has been almost a decade since Russian paramilitary forces attacked the city in 2014.
"Is this the success of the great, powerful Russian army?" - Budanov said.
According to Budanov, along with military actions, Russia has been trying to cause turmoil in Ukrainian society and the armed forces. He reportedly said that "Moscow has recently activated a plan that combines disinformation and attempts to assassinate prominent Ukrainians to cause discord in Ukraine and weaken the resolve of the country's soldiers." According to him, "the peak will come in the spring and will be accompanied by powerful military attacks, with the aim of taking advantage of any strife.
Budanov said that Russia was planning false flag operations against Ukrainian politicians that could be used to split society by blaming the government.
Another example he cited was the recent statement by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that French President Emmanuel Macron canceled a trip to Kyiv last week because he allegedly feared assassination.
Around the same time, a video was posted online purportedly showing a report by the French news channel France 24 with similar claims. France 24 stated that the video was a so-called diplomatic fake, created using artificial intelligence to reproduce the voice of the presenter. French officials deny that the visit has been canceled for security reasons and said Macron will be visiting by the middle of next month.
Budanov said the incident was part of a Russian operation. "These are all elements of the same big idea," he said.