Russian troops plan to capture Kupyansk in Kharkiv region by March 2024, before the presidential election. There are 500 Russian tanks, more than 600 combat vehicles, hundreds of howitzers and 40,000 Russian troops concentrated there, Forbes reports.
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As noted, the Russian army plans to regain a huge territory of the Kharkiv region, which was briefly occupied by Russians in 2022.
"The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions and part of Kharkiv region up to the Oskil River by March 2024," the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.
The river flows through Kupiansk from the north.
"A piece of Kharkiv would be an election day gift to Putin from the Russian army in Ukraine," writes Forbes.
Kupyansk and nearby settlements are reportedly being defended by about 10 Ukrainian brigades, numbering about 20,000 troops and hundreds of tanks, combat vehicles and howitzers.
Сили оборони відбили 21 атаку окупантів під Авдіївкою: ситуація на фронті 04.02.24, 19:07
However, the problem of ammunition remains. The United States has been one of the largest donors of 155mm shells for Ukraine's best heavy artillery - and pro-Russian Republicans in the US Congress cut off aid to Ukraine last fall.
Since then, the daily number of shells allocated to Ukrainian troops has dropped by two-thirds to just 2,000. Meanwhile, Russian troops are firing up to 10,000 shells a day thanks to a steady supply of ammunition from North Korea.
As noted, Russia's new firepower advantage allows it to concentrate artillery without much fear of Ukrainian counter-battery fire and to target concentrated batteries at populated areas.
"Artillery shortages and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukraine's operational plans," warns the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.
Точаться важкі бої, обстановка напружена: Сирський про Куп’янський напрямок03.02.24, 16:35