From less unanimous decision-making to informal exclusion, EU countries are already weighing how to move forward without Hungary if Viktor Orbán is re-elected, Politico reports, listing 5 options, writes UNN.
The EU is discussing contingency plans in case its long-time antagonist Viktor Orbán wins another term. EU countries are putting forward several ideas to prevent the Hungarian prime minister, and in some cases any other problematic leader, from disrupting the bloc's functioning. These include changing the voting method, stopping more funding, and even expulsion.
"Respect for the rule of law is essential for access to EU funds," said Michael McGrath, European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, when asked about tougher financial sanctions against countries.
Hungary will hold elections on April 12, and although Orbán's Fidesz party is nine percentage points behind Péter Magyar's Tisza party, according to the publication's poll, "the EU is preparing for a world where Orbán wins."
"Orbán has long been a thorn in the EU's side, most recently blocking a loan to Ukraine, which he approved in December. For many at the EU negotiating table, this was a critical point," the publication writes. "No one can blackmail the European Council, no one can blackmail European institutions," European Council President António Costa told reporters. "What Hungary is doing is absolutely unacceptable."
Then came allegations that Budapest had maintained contacts with Moscow throughout the war in Ukraine, and that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó had used breaks during EU meetings to brief his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.
Szijjártó admitted to regular calls with Lavrov during EU meetings24.03.26, 15:15
If Orbán wins the election, "everything will be different," one senior EU diplomat said.
"Many believe that a red line has been crossed [by blocking the loan to Ukraine] and that something needs to be done - but it's unclear what exactly," a second diplomat said.
"Presumably, discussions about how to deal with Orbán will resume and intensify, leading to a more honest discussion about how to interact with him - and perhaps more creative ways," a third diplomat said.
If Orbán wins, opinions are divided on whether he will change with a new mandate to govern the country. "He is smart enough - one of the smartest politicians in the European Council chamber - to know where the limits are," one senior EU official said.
"I don't think" he will change, one diplomat said. "He is a Trojan horse. The whole point of the EU is trust, the foundation of Europe is cooperation," he added.
At the same time, the publication listed 5 options being discussed in case Orbán wins the elections next month:
1. Change the voting procedure in the EU.
One option is to expand the use of qualified majority voting (QMV) - which typically requires 55% of the bloc's member states representing 65% of the EU's total population to vote "yes" - to sensitive areas that currently require unanimity, such as foreign policy or elements of the EU's long-term budget (MFF).
Why it might work: Three diplomats were particularly vocal about this option, one of whom noted a growing willingness to explore ways to improve the efficiency of EU decision-making by increasing the use of QMV.
Another of the three diplomats added: "This is what we are pushing for anyway, regardless of the very specific case [of Orbán]: if you want to react quickly, you need more decisions taken by qualified majority."
Why it might not work: Moving away from unanimity on more issues would have significant consequences, as the joint work of all EU countries is a key principle of the bloc.
"An attempt to push Ukraine's EU membership bid, despite Hungary's resistance, voiced last September, did not receive sufficient support among member states. However, two diplomats said that a new Orbán mandate could be a catalyst for revisiting such proposals," the publication writes.
Others remain skeptical. One diplomat pointed to the "delicate balance in foreign policy between effective decision-making and what member states still consider an important aspect of national sovereignty."
2. Multi-speed Europe.
An option mentioned by four diplomats is the wider use of flexible formats - from informal "coalitions of the willing" to enhanced cooperation between small groups of countries.
Why it might work: A "voluntary cooperation" coalition "already exists to some extent, especially in the context of security issues when the British are involved," one diplomat said. "But it cannot replace the EU-27 as a forum for information exchange," he noted.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed expanding the use of enhanced cooperation between voluntary member states to circumvent unanimity in areas such as competitiveness.
Why it might not work: Although Hungary, along with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, has opted out of financial agreements related to Ukraine, it continues to block these efforts. For example, in the case of the Ukrainian loan, one of the documents requiring approval before funds are disbursed requires the consent of all member states.
"In cases of extreme necessity, this can be a tool, but ultimately it still comes down to a decision by all 27 countries," one senior diplomat said.
Two other diplomats were critical of such limited formats, saying they should be exceptions, not the new norm. "We should consider this on a case-by-case basis, but I don't think we are interested in Hungary not participating in negotiations. We are the EU, and we must maintain unity," one diplomat said.
3. Stricter enforcement measures and financial pressure.
Another option is more aggressive enforcement measures, such as delaying the disbursement of EU funds.
European Council President António Costa put forward the idea that Orbán's blocking of the Ukrainian loan violated Article 4(3) of the EU treaties, which obliges member states to provide "sincere cooperation."
"Costa sent a letter on this matter, but there was no reaction," one diplomat recalled, mentioning fears of alleged interference during the election campaign.
A senior European Commission official said that the use of Article 4(3) is possible. Any violation could lead to an infringement procedure, which, if the EU court rules in favor of the European Commission, would result in financial sanctions.
Why it might work: An additional layer of what is called conditionality in EU parlance - where the bloc restricts or suspends access to EU funds if a country violates rule of law standards - is already included in the European Commission's proposal for the next long-term budget, which will be discussed under the Irish presidency of the EU Council starting in July.
McGrath, the European Commissioner, said that under the new proposal for the multiannual financial framework (MFF), the budget would support reforms that strengthen the rule of law in member states.
"This means that in cases of rule of law violations, the suspension of payments or the blocking of funding is now entirely possible," he said, without specifically mentioning Hungary.
Why it might not work: An adviser to the EU's highest court recently recommended overturning the European Commission's 2023 decision to unfreeze €10.2 billion in EU cohesion funds for Hungary. This move is also being challenged by the European Parliament, which suspects it was a quid pro quo for Hungary lifting its veto on Ukraine issues. A final decision has not yet been made, but it shows the problems that can arise when funds are delayed.
"Conditionality has proven quite effective in the past, but there must be a direct link to the misuse of EU funds. You can block funds, but you can't just say it's a political issue," one diplomat said.
Budapest has already made it clear that it will veto any stricter rule of law conditions linked to EU funds, or even "collapse" the entire budget if necessary.
"Under the new MFF, if there is a real possibility that we will not have access to EU funds at all, then why are we interested in adopting such an MFF?" asked Hungarian EU Affairs Minister János Bóka.
4. Suspension of voting rights.
In 2018, the European Parliament invoked Article 7 of the EU treaties, which allows for the suspension of a member state's voting rights if it violates the bloc's values.
Why it might work: Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis argued that even invoking Article 7 could have consequences. According to him, when he was in office, "even the advancement of Article 7 put pressure on Hungary - they became very nervous."
Why it might not work: The European Parliament may have invoked Article 7, but the process stalled because suspending a country's voting rights requires the support of the other 26 - Slovakia will not agree to this.
"Under Article 7, unanimity is required - that will be difficult," one diplomat said. Another added: "There is no real legal instrument. Article 7 can disenfranchise, but all 26 other countries must agree. And I assume at least one leader will not agree," hinting at Slovak Robert Fico.
5. Exclusion from the bloc.
"The most dramatic - and most unrealistic - of the options. No country has yet been excluded from the EU, and this topic remains taboo," the publication states.
Why it might work: One diplomat pointed to a comment published in a legal blog that suggested the possibility of repurposing the EU withdrawal clause (Article 50, which the UK invoked when it began the Brexit process) or other legal workarounds to "exit Hungary."
The diplomat said it was "unrealistic, but a good idea," adding that "a few years ago people hypothetically talked about this scenario - it's being discussed again."
Why it might not work: "Exclusion is not provided for in the treaties, and I don't see any interest in it for us," one diplomat said. "What would Hungary do in that case? It would fall into Russia's orbit of influence."
US prepares sanctions against Hungary for obstructing aid to Ukraine - FT27.03.26, 08:36