After the New Year's break, the Ukrainian hryvnia once again came under pressure, and exchange rate fluctuations quickly became a topic of widespread anxiety and critical forecasts. However, for now, the weakening of the national currency rather fits into the managed logic of exchange rate policy than signals a sharp change in the rules of the game.
This was stated in a comment to UNN by Oleg Pendzin, director of the Economic Discussion Club and expert, who explained why there is virtually no classic foreign exchange market in Ukraine, what is behind the January "hryvnia scenario," and what risks could destabilize the state currency in the second half of 2026.
What happened to the hryvnia in the second half of January
Despite relatively calm demand from the population and businesses, quotations quickly went up: the dollar crossed the 43 UAH mark in a short time, and the euro easily settled above 50 UAH.
Such a movement seems to be rather a consequence of a general change in exchange rate expectations and a post-holiday correction, rather than a reaction to some single "explosive" factor. After the holidays, the market traditionally returns to its usual volumes of settlements, importers intensify purchases, and banks re-evaluate positions, and this is sometimes enough for the exchange rate to shift even without a significant increase in demand.
As a result, several trading days turned into a noticeable jump: the dollar entered the range above 43 UAH, and the European currency crossed the psychological barrier of 50 UAH, reinforcing the feeling that the market had switched to a weaker hryvnia.
"There is no foreign exchange market": what the expert means
The key thesis of the UNN interlocutor sounds sharp:
"There is no foreign exchange market in Ukraine."
It is not about the absence of currency operations, but about the fact that the mechanics of exchange rate formation are not market-based in the classical sense.
In an organized foreign exchange market, supply and demand are formed through competition between numerous currency sellers (primarily exporters) and buyers (importers), and the Central Bank only smooths out excessive jumps with interventions. In Ukrainian realities, however, the National Bank plays the role of the only key currency seller in the interbank market.
From this, the expert concludes: a significant part of the exchange rate dynamics is a derivative of the regulator's strategy, and not a consequence of unexpected market fluctuations. This is important to consider in order to understand: if the regulator controls most of the supply, then the exchange rate becomes not so much an indicator of "financial panic" as an instrument of macroeconomic management.
The logic of the state budget and seasonality: why the hryvnia weakens in winter
Oleg Pendzin links winter exchange rate fluctuations to the budget cycle. In his opinion, December and January are traditionally periods when:
- in December, large budget payments, closing of acts of completed works, and settlements for tender contracts take place;
- in January, revenues (including tax revenues) are often lower due to the "holiday factor," while social and other mandatory payments do not disappear.
In such a structure, a weaker exchange rate is more beneficial for the Ministry of Finance: for a conditional dollar of international aid or other foreign exchange inflows, the budget receives more hryvnia, which facilitates the financing of expenditures.
The regulator, according to the logic of the UNN interlocutor, can "release" the exchange rate in winter, and then, closer to February, return to strengthening the hryvnia.
As an example, the expert cites January 2025: then, according to him, the hryvnia weakened and then strengthened. He suggests reading the current situation in the context of similar logic.
Are there signs of a radical change in exchange rate policy in Ukraine?
The director of the Economic Discussion Club clearly states his opinion: there are currently no grounds for a radical change in exchange rate policy. The expert's argument is simple: the key safeguard of 2025 remains in 2026.
"This refers to international macro-financial support," Pendzin clarifies.
He also emphasizes the average annual exchange rate targets laid down in the state budget (for 2025 and 2026), but stresses that the actual dynamics may deviate, and the average annual indicator does not mean that the exchange rate will remain at the same level throughout the year.
The conclusion here is rather technical: the very existence of macro-financial support reduces the need for sharp devaluation scenarios in the short term.
What could happen to the exchange rate in the first half of the year: the expert's baseline scenario
Oleg Pendzin's assessment for the coming months boils down to a cautious expectation of stabilization and a potential slight strengthening of the hryvnia in February.
He emphasizes:
"A forecast in such conditions cannot be accurate, because even with a high role of the regulator, the exchange rate depends on many variables. However, the basic logic is as follows:
winter weakening may be part of a managed scenario.
In February, a rollback and partial strengthening are possible, if no additional "demand shocks" arise," the expert notes.
Inflation as the main motive: why the NBU "holds" the hryvnia
The expert economist emphasizes: the National Bank is responsible for inflation, and the exchange rate is one of the tools to curb it. The stronger the hryvnia, the cheaper imports, and therefore, the lower the inflationary pressure through import prices. For an economy dependent on imports (fuel, equipment, part of food and raw materials), this is critical.
Hence, a practical conclusion follows: even if it seems to some that a strong hryvnia hinders exports, in conditions of war and high risks, the priority of inflationary stability may prevail.
Harvest, war, and population behavior: what will affect the hryvnia in the second half of 2026
The greatest uncertainty, according to Pendzin, begins after the first half of the year. He directly links exchange rate risks to two groups of factors.
Harvest and food balance.
If the harvest is good, there is more room for a softer exchange rate policy: domestic prices for basic products may be more stable, and the inflationary effect of more expensive imports is partially offset.
"If the harvest is worse, the regulator, according to this logic, will be forced to keep the hryvnia tighter to avoid fueling inflation," the economist explains the logic of things.
Security situation and demand psychology.
Here, Oleg Pendzin suggests focusing on the typical reaction to an escalation at the front: the population actively buys foreign currency out of fear, possible migration, and a loss of confidence in the national currency.
"The increase in demand itself creates devaluation pressure, and the NBU's ability to flood the market with foreign currency is not unlimited," says Pendzin.
In the same vein, the expert also mentioned foreign policy risks and the "shifting attention" of partners to other crises (for example, the "Greenland issue"), which theoretically can affect the pace and volume of support, and therefore, exchange rate expectations.
NBU reserves as a "safety cushion," or why it's too early to panic
To reduce the degree of emotion that arises during discussions about the financial future of the hryvnia, the director of the Economic Discussion Club appeals to the volume of NBU international reserves, citing figures at the level of 57 billion dollars.
In his opinion, this is a large sum that gives the regulator room for exchange rate maneuvering and smoothing out demand peaks. At the same time, he admits that reserves can be spent quickly if demand simultaneously increases and external financing falls. But in current conditions, the very existence of a significant "safety cushion" reduces the risk of an uncontrolled scenario.
Thus, the current exchange rate movements are not necessarily the beginning of a collapse. They can be an element of the managed policy of the national financial regulator within the budget and inflation contours.
In addition, in the short term (the first months of 2026), the key factor remains the regulator's strategy and the rhythm of external financing, and not the laws of the "pure foreign exchange market." And the biggest risks shift to the second half of the year, where the exchange rate will depend more on the harvest, security, and behavioral factors of population demand.
Recall
Earlier, fintech expert, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka, predicted that the dollar exchange rate during 2026 will be in the corridor of 44-46 hryvnias per dollar, with possible short-term jumps during periods of peak demand for foreign currency. Provided that military risks and high budget expenditures are maintained, the dollar may approach the level of 47-48 hryvnias by the end of the year.
As for the euro, according to Olena Sosedka's forecasts, its dynamics will be more volatile due to the influence of the global market. In the baseline scenario, the euro exchange rate this year will fluctuate within 49-52 hryvnias.