Extreme weather conditions caused by climate change lead to short-term increases in food prices worldwide, as a study showed, writes UNN with reference to the Financial Times.
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A study conducted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center directly links dozens of climate extremes to sharp spikes in food prices, highlighting the growing vulnerability of food systems to environmental shocks.
Previous studies have examined how high temperatures, which cause crop yield reductions and supply shortages, contribute to overall food price inflation in the long term. However, the new study shows that individual food items also experience much sharper short-term price spikes, contributing to inflation.
The price of olive oil in Europe jumped by 50 percent last year after prolonged droughts in southern Spain during 2022 and 2023.
In India, a heatwave last May led to an 89 percent increase in onion prices, while in Korea, cabbage prices rose by 70 percent after a record summer heatwave.
In Japan, rice prices rose by 48 percent in September after a region-wide heatwave in August, and in China, vegetable prices rose by 30 percent. In California and Arizona in the US, vegetable prices jumped by 80 percent in November 2022 after droughts.
Many of the weather events that caused these price surges "were absolutely unprecedented from a historical perspective," said the study's lead author, Maximilian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.
Temperatures were "far beyond what we would expect in a stable climate unaffected by human emissions," he said.
The study found that food price spikes often followed extreme weather events within just a few months – a pattern that researchers warn is likely to become more common as climate change intensifies.
"We know that [extreme weather events] are already becoming more intense and frequent than 30-40 years ago, and we expect this to continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise," Kotz said.
If the food system "continues to react in the same way we have seen recently, then we expect the same [in terms of food prices], and probably in more extreme and more unpredictable ways," he noted.
The study concludes that food price spikes spread from individual regions around the world through trade. For example, the cost of chocolate in the UK increased after a threefold rise in cocoa prices following drought and extreme heat in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
Market speculation and "bad policies" often also exacerbate the impact of climate change-related food price increases, said Raj Patel of the University of Texas, who was not involved in the report.
The study also raised questions for central banks, as rising food prices threaten efforts to control consumer inflation, especially in developing countries where food accounts for a larger share of consumer prices.
The study also notes that when prices rise, poorer households are likely to eat less, often nutritious, food. Fruit and vegetable consumption, in particular, was "very vulnerable to rising food prices," Taylor said.