Why Russia benefits from the detention of SBU Major General Serhii Duka – hybrid threats expert explains the risks

The detention of SBU Major General Serhii Duka as part of Operation "Carthage" could be particularly beneficial to Russian propaganda. After all, this concerns a high-ranking military counterintelligence official who, for many years, participated in special operations against the Russian Federation itself. The scandal has given the Kremlin grounds to call into question not only the reputation of the major general, but also the results of the operations in which he was involved, UNN reports.

Andrii Shapovalov, former acting head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council and an expert on hybrid threats, emphasized this in a comment to UNN. 

"For many years of the war, Serhii Duka was involved in organizing and carrying out special operations directly on the territory of Russia and participated in measures aimed against Russian interests. In other words, we are talking about a representative of Ukrainian military counterintelligence whose activities were directly related to countering Russian aggression," Shapovalov said.

In the expert's opinion, this creates additional opportunities for manipulation for the Kremlin. In particular, even the results of operations in the preparation and execution of which the general participated could come under informational attack.

"Russian propaganda may also use this very aspect for manipulation. In particular, in attempts to present his activities in a distorted context, call the results of Ukrainian special operations into question, or even use the current scandal to discredit the operations in which he was involved," Shapovalov explained.

At the same time, Russian propaganda is already trying to turn the situation surrounding Duka to its own advantage. Thus, on the day of the general's detention, pro-Kremlin media circulated claims about alleged "purges" in Ukraine's security services and a power struggle. They then began talking about Western interference in the work of law enforcement agencies. Later, they spread fakes claiming that SBU employees had allegedly been forcibly collecting money for Serhii Duka's bail. After the court hearing, the enemy used the general's words, "I am not going to die," to speculate about his possible death in a pretrial detention center.

According to Shapovalov's assessment, such information campaigns may have a much broader goal than discrediting individual officials.

"We understand that Russia's strategic goal is to call Ukraine's control over Western military aid into question and create political arguments for our partners to limit arms supplies," the expert emphasized.

According to Shapovalov, the excessive publicity surrounding high-profile criminal investigations poses a particular danger. Law enforcement officials' emphatic statements, footage of searches, released audio recordings, and other materials may shape public perceptions of a suspect's guilt even before a court ruling. At the same time, all of this becomes ready-made material for Russian information attacks.

"We live in a state governed by the rule of law, where the very fact of a detention or the publication of certain materials does not yet mean that a person's guilt has been proven. And when we see the publication of striking photographs, videos, audio recordings, and other materials, our enemies, too, undoubtedly make use of this," the expert noted.

Shapovalov emphasizes that society should be informed about the work of law enforcement agencies; however, public coverage of investigations must not replace judicial proceedings, especially when information about a case can be used against Ukraine.