Ukrainian business maintains optimism for the fifth consecutive month - what supports business activity

Ukrainian enterprises have maintained positive assessments of their economic performance for the fifth consecutive month. This is reported by UNN with reference to the results of a business survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

In July 2026, the business activity expectations index stood at 50.1 points, compared to 50.4 points in June.

For comparison, in July 2025, the indicator was at 48.3 points. An index value above the neutral mark of 50 points indicates a predominance of positive assessments by enterprises regarding current results and prospects of their activities.

Details

The preservation of optimistic sentiments among representatives of most surveyed sectors was facilitated by the inflow of international financial aid, active consumer demand, budget funding for infrastructure restoration and road construction, as well as a stable situation in the energy system. Improvements in inflation expectations and seasonal factors also had a positive impact.

At the same time, enterprises continue to operate under conditions of significant security and economic risks. Business activity was restrained by the increased intensity of Russian strikes on critical infrastructure, logistical complications, some deterioration in exchange rate expectations, and a shortage of qualified workers.

Enterprises in the construction sector remained the most optimistic for the fifth consecutive time. They rated their performance and future prospects the highest among all sectors. In contrast, service sector enterprises were the only survey participants to provide restrained assessments of business activity.

Representatives of all sectors forecast a further slowdown in the growth of purchase prices, the cost of raw materials and supplies, as well as goods purchased for resale. Businesses also expected a smaller increase in prices and tariffs for their own products and services. The exception was the service sector, where respondents forecast a slight acceleration in tariff growth.

The situation on the labor market remains difficult. Only construction enterprises expected an increase in the total number of employees. Industrial and service sector companies forecast further staff reductions, while trade enterprises did not plan to significantly change the number of employees.

Reminder

In April 2026, the index of business activity expectations stood at 51.7 points, compared to 52.7 in March. At the same time, a year ago this indicator was lower at 49.4, indicating a gradual recovery of economic sentiment.