UK elections could end in 'Starmergeddon' for the Prime Minister – media

Millions of voters across Great Britain will take part in elections on Thursday, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces his biggest and most dangerous electoral test since leading his Labour Party to victory in the 2024 election, according to a publication by The New York Times, UNN reports.

Voters in Scotland and Wales will elect members to national parliaments, while voters in many parts of England will vote for representatives in local and municipal government bodies.

Starmer's popularity has plummeted during his two years in power, and voters are expected to express their dissatisfaction at the polling stations. His prospects are so bleak that one of his opponents, Stephen Flynn, leader of the Scottish National Party in Westminster, called the likely election result "Starmergeddon."

Who will vote and for what?

In England, voters are electing representatives to municipal councils, with about 5,000 council seats at stake across 136 different districts. Additionally, elections for six mayors will take place.

Scotland and Wales, as countries of the United Kingdom, have their own parliaments. They have autonomy in certain policy areas, including healthcare and education, and are typically elected every five years.

Scottish voters will elect representatives to their parliament in Edinburgh, while Welsh voters will elect members to their parliament, known as the Senedd, in Cardiff.

Which parties are bracing for a bad day?

The two largest parties in parliament, Labour and Conservative, are expected to suffer.

Starmer's center-left Labour Party faces double pressure. To its left, an energized Green Party is winning over progressive voters, mainly in urban areas.

To the right of the Labour Party, the populist Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is thriving in the working-class regions of Northern England, the Midlands, and Wales.

In England, the Labour Party is defending about 2,550 local council seats and could lose about 1,850 of them, according to projections by polling expert Robert Hayward. He predicts the Conservatives could lose about 600 seats.

The Conservatives have a relatively new leader, Kemi Badenoch, but voters do not seem to have forgiven the party for 14 years in power, which ended in 2024.

In the Welsh elections, polls show that the Labour Party is likely to end up in third place—a stunning loss for the party that has led the government in Wales since the creation of the Welsh Parliament's predecessor in 1999.

And in Scotland, the party could also take third place.

Who is most likely to succeed?

In England, the Reform UK party is poised to be the biggest winner, potentially gaining 1,550 local council seats, mostly in areas outside London. The Green Party, which has become a significant leftist force under its new leader Zack Polanski, could gain about 500 seats in London councils and middle-class areas in other cities.

The centrist Liberal Democrats are likely to make modest gains, mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.

The Scottish National Party, a center-left party that advocates for Scottish independence, will clearly remain the largest force in Edinburgh.

In Wales, another left-nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, is expected to battle for first place with the Reform UK party.

When are the results expected?

Polling stations close at 10:00 PM local time on Thursday. While some votes will be counted overnight, in most areas, the count will begin on Friday morning. A significant portion of the results should arrive by around noon on Friday, and the picture should become clear by early evening.

What is at stake?

For Starmer, the elections carry political danger. He has been criticized for appointing Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as ambassador to Washington, and rumors of a possible challenge to his leadership have been circulating for months. Potential rivals include Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester; Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister; and Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary. To mount a challenge, Burnham would need to win a seat in parliament, and neither of the other two has moved against Starmer yet.

But catastrophic results could put the Prime Minister in a precarious position.

The voting has practical consequences. The parliaments of Scotland and Wales control policies including healthcare, schools, many aspects of transport, and have some tax-raising powers. Local councils in England provide services ranging from elderly care to waste collection.

"Furthermore, amid the fragmentation of British politics, analysts will be watching for signs of structural change. Will the results indicate a continued collapse of the duopoly that has dominated British politics for decades? Do voters see Reform UK as a viable alternative to the Conservatives? How much damage can the Greens do to Labour?" the publication states.

If the Scottish National Party wins, its leader John Swinney is likely to call for a second referendum on Scottish independence (the party lost the previous one in 2014).

While the government in London is likely to block this prospect, it could fuel the debate over Scotland's future.

Plaid Cymru views independence as a long-term goal for Wales and is not proposing a referendum anytime soon. However, if it wins, Wales and Scotland could be governed by parties that want to break up the United Kingdom, the publication notes.