The "Flamingo" strike on the Russian Federation demonstrated the real effectiveness of the missiles; one hit out of six is a success – experts
Kyiv • UNN
During the attack on the plant in Cheboksary, one of the six FP-5 missiles reached its target. This is a higher air defense penetration rate compared to Russian Kh-101 missiles.
The probability of cruise missiles breaking through a layered air defense system at a rate of approximately one in six is quite typical, considering the experience of modern warfare. This was reported by Defense Express, according to UNN.
Details
During the attack on the "VNIIR-Progress" plant in Cheboksary, the Ukrainian military deployed six FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles, one of which reached its target. Formally, this gives an air defense breakthrough rate of about 16%.
At first glance, such a result may seem low; however, analysts emphasize that effectiveness must be evaluated in a broader context.
Russian missiles penetrate Ukrainian air defense even less frequently
According to the Air Force, in March-April, Russian troops used 116 Kh-101 missiles, 44 "Kalibr" missiles, and 13 R-500 missiles. Of these, 95.7%, 90.9%, and 84.6% were shot down, respectively.
The average breakthrough rate for Russian cruise missiles is only about 6.4%. This means that out of six missiles, on average, fewer than one breaks through.
During the difficult winter months of 2025-2026, when Ukrainian air defense was depleted, this figure rose to approximately 25%. Even under such conditions, out of six missiles, only one or two were expected to reach their target.
Range and route complexity significantly complicate the breakthrough
In the case of the FP-5 "Flamingo," we are talking about a strike at a distance of about 1,000 km deep into Russian territory. Cruise missiles do not fly in a straight line; they change their route, bypassing air defense zones and utilizing the terrain.
This significantly reduces the probability of a breakthrough, especially against an adversary with a developed air defense and aviation system.
Even the US lacks similar combat experience
Analysts note that there is virtually no global statistics on the use of cruise missiles against an adversary with an air defense system as developed as Russia's.
Even American Tomahawks have been used against significantly weaker defense systems and at shallower depths.
Thus, the rate of hitting one target out of six missiles is not a failure, but corresponds to or even exceeds the average breakthrough rates for cruise missiles in modern conditions. The key factor remains not only the number of missiles launched but also the complexity of the target, the depth of the strike, and the level of the enemy's air defense.