Strikes barely set back Iran's nuclear program, weaponization timeline remains unchanged – US intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
Iran's nuclear program has barely stalled following US and Israeli attacks, according to US intelligence.
According to U.S. intelligence estimates, recent strikes by the U.S. and Israel have not significantly set back Iran's nuclear program, and the timeline for the potential creation of a nuclear weapon remains close to previous forecasts. This was reported by Reuters, citing sources familiar with intelligence data, according to UNN.
Details
According to the agency's interlocutors, even before the hostilities, analysts estimated that Iran could produce enough material for a bomb and the weapon itself in approximately three to six months. After the strikes on nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, this timeframe increased to nine months to one year.
At the same time, current estimates remain largely unchanged even after two months of war, indicating the limited impact of the attacks on key components of the program.
Uranium Stockpiles and Uncertainty
According to sources, significant deterrence of Iran's nuclear program would require the destruction or removal of stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to confirm the location of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Part of this material is likely located in an underground complex in Isfahan; however, inspections are currently suspended.
According to the agency's estimates, existing stockpiles are sufficient to create up to 10 nuclear warheads in the event of further enrichment.
War and Negotiations
The war between the U.S. and Iran, which began in late February, was partially aimed at deterring Tehran's nuclear program. Despite the truce reached on April 7, tensions persist, particularly due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump has long made it clear that Iran can never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon
The White House emphasizes that Washington's goal remains preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.