Russia will be able to rebuild its army within 5-7 years after the war - Foreign Affairs analyst
Kyiv • UNN
Analyst Michael Kofman stated that Russia is capable of restoring its armed forces to a level threatening NATO within 5-7 years after the war. The size of the army has already exceeded the pre-war level and amounts to 1.3 million military personnel.
Despite enormous losses in the war against Ukraine, Russia is capable of restoring its armed forces to a level that will again pose a serious threat to NATO within 5-7 years after the end of hostilities. This assessment was given by military analyst Michael Kofman in an article for Foreign Affairs, reports UNN.
Details
According to him, the size of the Russian army already exceeds its pre-war level. Before the full-scale invasion, it numbered about 850,000 military personnel, but now it is approximately 1.3 million.
Despite losses estimated at at least 400,000 dead and 600,000-800,000 wounded, Russia has expanded most of its combat units, created new drone, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare units, and formed a separate branch of the military - the Unmanned Systems Forces.
Russia is ramping up weapons production
Kofman notes that the Kremlin compensates for large equipment losses by restoring vehicles from storage, domestic production, and arms supplies from North Korea. According to his estimate, production of T-90M tanks already exceeds 200 units per year, and the output of attack drones is growing rapidly. In 2025, Russia produced over 70,000 drones, and contracts for at least another 100,000 such devices have been signed for 2026.
At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that quantitative recovery does not mean full restoration of combat capability. The Russian army has lost a significant portion of experienced officers, recruits undergo minimal training, and the centralized command system and command problems remain serious weaknesses.
According to Kofman, NATO countries now need to adapt their armies to the new realities of war. In particular, the Alliance should accelerate the development of air defense and anti-drone systems, and also take into account the experience of the war in Ukraine to be prepared for a possible restoration of Russia's military potential after the end of the current conflict.