The liberation of Crimea is no longer a fantasy, but a reality - an expert named August-September as the most critical for Russians
Kyiv • UNN
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko stated that the liberation of Crimea is impossible without the de-occupation of Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia. According to him, due to strikes on logistics, the Russian group may find itself in a critical situation as early as August-September.
Ukraine is creating conditions to isolate the Russian group in the south, and the primary goal is not Crimea directly, but the liberation of the left-bank Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia region. If the current pace of striking the occupiers' logistics is maintained, as early as August-September, Russian troops could find themselves in a critical situation. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Peace negotiations for Putin would mean defeat
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated earlier that the operation regarding Crimea has a clearly calculated strategy, and additional weapons from partners can accelerate the end of the war. At the same time, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko, Ukraine's current actions are aimed primarily not at forcing the Kremlin to sit down at the negotiating table, but at creating military conditions for the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.
I lean more towards the second option – the return of our territories. I do not see peace negotiations involving Russia under current conditions as realistic. For Putin, any negotiations where he cannot issue ultimatums or demand Ukraine's capitulation will look like a demonstration of weakness. And for a person formed in the KGB system, showing weakness means political end. That is why he will not agree to negotiations that do not meet his conditions
The expert emphasized that the West still often misjudges the logic of actions of the Kremlin leadership and Putin personally.
I have been observing for many years that Russia is simply not understood. This has been going on since 2014. Very often, Putin's statements are perceived as if he himself believes what he says. In reality, this is not the case. He deliberately lies. He lied during the story with the submarine "Kursk", lied after Beslan, lies constantly even now. He knows perfectly well the real state of affairs at the front, but deliberately creates a different picture. Therefore, one should not count on him voluntarily agreeing to honest negotiations
The liberation of Crimea begins with the Kherson region
According to Kovalenko, despite the active discussion of Crimea, today key processes are taking place precisely on the mainland part of southern Ukraine. It is there that the foundation for the future de-occupation of the peninsula is being formed.
As of today, the liberation of Crimea without the prior de-occupation of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is practically impossible. Any large-scale amphibious operation without this would be suicide. Maritime logistics is extremely complex, especially when it comes to hundreds of kilometers under the control of Russian aviation, attack helicopters, and "Lancets". Even if the landing is successful, the main question will arise – how to supply these forces
According to the expert, it is much more effective to isolate the Russian group on the left bank of the Dnipro, and only then develop offensive actions.
Many talk specifically about Crimea because it is a media topic. But the Russians currently have much more serious problems precisely on the left-bank Kherson region. If there are about 14,000 troops in Crimea, the "Dnipro" group numbers approximately 125,000 personnel. And all of them need to be supplied with ammunition, fuel, and equipment. It is this logistics that is gradually being destroyed today
Occupiers' logistics is rapidly deteriorating
The expert drew attention to the fact that Russian supply is increasingly dependent on routes that are under the control of Ukrainian drones.
From Mariupol to Hola Prystan or Nova Kakhovka is over 400 kilometers. The main logistics runs along the M-14 highway, which is already under constant control of Ukrainian drones. That is why the first serious problems will arise not in Crimea, but in the "Dnipro" group on the left-bank Kherson region. It is much more vulnerable to logistical isolation
Kovalenko added that even alternative roads do not compensate for the losses of the main transport arteries.
They will use lateral roads, but that is a completely different speed, a different cargo flow, and much greater vulnerability to drone strikes. They will camouflage themselves, use civilian transport, but this will not allow them to fully supply a group that must either attack or hold the defense
The Dnipro will not become an insurmountable obstacle
Separately, the interlocutor of UNN commented on the issue of a possible crossing of the Dnipro. In his opinion, provided Russian logistics are destroyed, this natural obstacle will no longer be decisive.
If the enemy has disrupted communications, logistics are not working, and they are not receiving a sufficient amount of material and technical support, then even such a serious natural obstacle as the Dnipro is no longer decisive. We gained some experience during the operation in Krynky. At that time, the enemy's logistics were not yet so weakened. Now the situation is different, and the prospects for conducting operations on the left bank are significantly improving
August-September could be a turning point
According to the military expert, if the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the current pace of strikes on the occupiers' logistics, the situation for Russian troops could sharply deteriorate in the coming months.
We will not be able to completely leave the Russian army without weapons. They have reserves, warehouses, some of which cannot be hit. But if we talk about the critical moment specifically for the group in the south, the most likely period looks like August-September. Perhaps even a little earlier, but that would already be a very optimistic scenario
Russians may repeat a "gesture of goodwill"
Kovalenko does not rule out that with further deterioration of logistics, the Russian command will be forced to retreat from part of the occupied territories.
If the appropriate conditions are created, they will be forced to withdraw. Withdrawing over 125,000 troops along with equipment from the left-bank Kherson region is an extremely difficult task. If they delay, the losses during the retreat will only increase. Therefore, the Kherson region is currently in a much more difficult situation for the Russian group than even Crimea. It is there that they may be forced to make their next gesture of goodwill