In the next five years, the average temperature on Earth may exceed the threshold of 2°C for the first time - FT

The average temperature on Earth may temporarily exceed the 2°C threshold within the next five years. This is reported by the Financial Times, writes UNN.

Details

It is reported that scientists expect that an increase in temperature to almost 2°C will have a number of consequences, including a drop in yields and the vulnerability of more than a third of the world's population to the effects of extreme heat.

However, according to reports, this does not violate the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming from pre-industrial times to well below 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C, given that the limit is usually measured over at least two decades.

However, the WMO warns that a temporary exceedance of the global temperature by 2°C may occur in the near future. The reason is the record high concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which has reached its highest level in the last 800,000 years. Greenhouse gases remain the main driver of climate change, the organization emphasizes.

According to the study, annual temperatures in the period from 2025 to 2029 will be 1.2-1.9 °C higher than the average for 1850-1900, and the five-year average is likely to exceed 1.5 °C.

Adam Scaife of the Met Office's Hadley Centre said the forecasts from the UN agency, which collects global, regional and national datasets, were "shocking" because they show that years in which temperature increases exceeded 1.5°C would now become "commonplace". 

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According to the European observation agency "Copernicus", at least one of the next five years is most likely to be warmer than the record 2024, when the average surface temperature of the Earth was 1.6 °C higher than the pre-industrial level.

"There is a possibility that things could warm up very quickly in the next five years," says Leon Hermanson, a senior scientist at the Met Office. "It's not something anyone wants to see, but it's what science is telling us."

The WMO report is a consensus forecast based on data from global climate monitoring agencies that use computer models developed by institutions such as the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, the Canadian Centre for Modeling and Climate Analysis, and the German Weather Service.

After 10 of the warmest years on record, there is no sign of respite in the coming years, which means that the negative impact on our economy, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet will intensify

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Recall

Earlier, it was reported that scientists warn that even limiting global warming to 1.5°C will not stop sea levels from rising. To slow down the process, the temperature needs to be lowered below current levels.