German elections on February 23: what will change for Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Germany will hold early elections to the Bundestag, with Merz and Scholz in the main race. The results may affect military aid to Ukraine and policy toward Ukrainian refugees.
On February 23, Germany will hold early elections to the Bundestag after the collapse of the Scholz coalition. The main fight is between the current chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz. The results of the vote could affect aid to Ukraine, refugee policy and Berlin's position in the war with Russia. UNN explains how the results may affect Ukraine.
In Germany, the two main center-left political forces are the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) bloc, together with their Bavarian partner party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The SPD adheres to center-left views, focusing on social support and integration, while the CDU/CSU represent conservative values, support a market economy and a strong security state.
However, these traditional parties have recently lost some support. This is due to internal problems and criticism of their migration and economic policies. Instead, the Greens, which advocates environmental reforms, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which criticizes open borders and globalization, are gaining popularity. These dynamics reflect the growing demand for change among voters.
Leaders of the race: Merz vs. Scholz
The main struggle is between Friedrich Merz (CDU) and the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).
Friedrich Merz represents the economically liberal and conservative part of German politics. His approach is based on supporting traditional values, market economy, and increased security. He insists on a tough migration policy, including reduced social benefits for refugees, including Ukrainian citizens, and simplified employment through adaptation.
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In the economic sphere, Merz advocates tax cuts and reduced bureaucracy, while in foreign policy he favors a tougher stance against Russia and stronger ties with the United States and other allies. He has repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine should not be an official prospect for NATO membership during negotiations with Russia.
Unlike the current chancellor, Merz does not rule out supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles, but with the consent of all European partners, while Scholz rejected such an initiative.
On February 15, Merz met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Munich. During the talks, they discussed defense support, strengthening the front line, and investments in weapons production in Ukraine.
Olaf Scholz is backed by a moderate social democratic agenda, combining economic stability with social justice. His government supports labor rights, social guarantees, and the integration of refugees through employment programs, language courses, and vocational education. At the same time, Scholz insists on preserving social benefits, considering them a key element in ensuring decent living conditions.
In international politics, the Chancellor fulfills the EU's role as a guarantor of stability, particularly in energy security and assistance to Ukraine. During the televised debate, he said that the decision to grant Ukraine EU candidate status was “right,” emphasizing that EU membership would significantly enhance its security. He did not comment on the simultaneous prospect of Ukraine joining NATO.
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Scholz has also repeatedly emphasized that peace cannot be imposed on Ukraine on someone else's terms. It should be noted that Merz and Scholz publicly refused to cooperate after the election
He said this during a televised hour of voter questions.
How will the policy towards Ukrainian refugees change?
The victory of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc may lead to a reduction in social benefits for Ukrainian refugees, but may facilitate the employment of Ukrainian refugees. In particular, they plan to simplify the recognition of qualifications and help them learn German at work. Newly arrived Ukrainians will no longer receive “money for citizens” but will receive assistance under the law on asylum seekers - 460 euros per month. This is less than what the unemployed in Germany receive and will mean the abolition of housing and health insurance benefits. Instead, they will be provided with vouchers for food and household goods.
The Alternative for Germany party demands that social benefits for all Ukrainian refugees be canceled, leaving only 460 euros. At the same time, they want to keep work permits for Ukrainians. However, this party's participation in the government is unlikely due to its extreme views. Alice Weidel is the leader of the far-right and pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. She has called for no more weapons to be shipped to Ukraine and has argued that such shipments are a “provocation” against Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The Free Democratic Party and the Union of Sarah Wagenknecht also propose to reduce social benefits for refugees, including Ukrainians. They believe that more emphasis should be placed on employment rather than state aid.
The Social Democrats and the Greens are focused on improving the integration of refugees into the labor market, without reducing benefits. If these parties join a coalition with the CDU/CSU, a compromise may be found, but no significant changes for Ukrainians are expected.
Probable election outcome and coalition formation
Polls indicate that the CDU/CSU under Merz is leading with 30% support. The far-right AfD may take second place (20%). Scholz's Social Democrats are currently gaining only 15%.
However, none of the leading parties is planning to cooperate with the AfD, whose pro-Russian leader, Alice Weidel, has repeatedly called for no more arms shipments to Ukraine and claimed that such shipments are a “provocation” against Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
At the same time, even if the CDU/CSU wins, they will not be able to form a government on their own and will have to negotiate with the Social Democrats, the Greens, or the Free Democrats, who are also likely to enter the Bundestag.
