Does a new plague epidemic threaten the world because of the case in Russia, and how dangerous is the disease today?
Kyiv • UNN
A suspected case of pneumonic plague in Irkutsk Oblast claimed the life of a laboratory technician, and around 200 contacts were isolated. The WHO considers a global epidemic unlikely.
Reports of a suspected case of pneumonic plague in Russia's Irkutsk Region, where a 28-year-old employee of a plague-control institute died and about 200 of her contacts were isolated, have raised concerns about the possible spread of the dangerous infection. However, modern plague, despite its high risk, no longer poses the same global threat as it did during historic pandemics, since it can be effectively treated with antibiotics, the WHO reports, UNN writes.
Details
Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. The disease has not disappeared: natural foci exist in various parts of the world, while the largest number of cases in recent years have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Madagascar.
The pneumonic form of plague is considered the most dangerous. Unlike the much more common bubonic form, it can be transmitted directly from person to person through respiratory particles. Without treatment, pneumonic plague is almost always fatal, and the patient's condition can deteriorate extremely quickly.
Could plague cause an epidemic like the one in the Middle Ages again?
Theoretically, yes. The WHO emphasizes that pneumonic plague, due to its ability to spread between people, can cause serious outbreaks. However, the situation is fundamentally different from the time of the "Black Death," which claimed tens of millions of lives in the 14th century.
Today, plague is treated with antibiotics. The most important thing is to establish the diagnosis and begin therapy as early as possible. According to the WHO, when detected and treated promptly, the chances of recovery from pneumonic plague are high. At the same time, without treatment, it can lead to death within just 18–24 hours after symptoms appear.
People who have had close contact with a patient suffering from pneumonic plague are given a preventive course of antibiotics. The patient is isolated, while medical workers use personal protective equipment. The CDC notes that transmission usually requires close contact with an infected person and their respiratory droplets.
Therefore, based on the information currently available, there are no grounds to speak of a threat of a global epidemic because of the events in the Irkutsk Region. It is much more important to determine whether there have been any new infections among the contacts and how quickly they were isolated and preventive treatment was initiated.
What happened in Russia
According to Russian media, 28-year-old Darya Shipilova worked as a laboratory technician at the Irkutsk plague-control institute. On September 25, she allegedly broke a test tube containing the pneumonic plague pathogen, after which she became ill. The woman was hospitalized, and she died during the night of October 2.
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After that, about 200 people who may have had contact with her were identified. According to media reports, 189 people were hospitalized for observation, while the Shelekhov District Hospital was placed under quarantine. Anti-epidemic measures were launched in the region.
At the same time, much uncertainty remains surrounding the situation. As of the time the first reports appeared, Russian federal authorities had not released complete information about the circumstances of the infection or the results of examinations of the contacts. Therefore, it is still too early to conclude that there has been a full-scale plague outbreak based solely on reports of a laboratory technician's death and the quarantine.
The scale of isolating contacts in such a situation does not itself mean that all of them are infected. In the case of pneumonic plague, the rapid identification of contacts, their medical observation, preventive antibiotics, and the isolation of possible patients are standard measures intended to prevent an epidemic from developing.