This year's grain harvest will be about 60 million tons. This will not be enough to increase exports. This opinion was expressed by the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Leonid Kozachenko, in an exclusive commentary to UNN.
Somewhere around 60 million tons will be the gross harvest and, in order to increase exports, it will not be enough. Therefore... even with what we have, these are very high indicators. Under the conditions we are in, no other country in the world could achieve such results
According to him, this year, because of the war, farmers had fewer material resources, in particular fertilizers, so the harvest will not be able to increase significantly, and thus increase exports of grains and oilseeds.
"Although there was enough moisture this year and it contributed to the fact that the vegetation was quite active grain crops and oilseeds, but mineral fertilizers were applied less and the actual quality of seeds was not the same as before the war. Because farmers do not have enough material resources to buy everything they need," Kozachenko explained.
Supplement
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported more than 49.7 million tons of grains and legumes in the 2023-2024 marketing year, up 3% from the previous period, with wheat exports up 10%, while corn exports declined by 275,000 tons.
Recall
Some experts interviewed by UNN attribute the increase in grain export figures, among other things, to the intensified fight against gray exports. In particular, earlier it became known that the Bureau of Economic Security is investigating several criminal proceedings related to gray export of grain. According to law enforcers, the most common scheme of such tax evasion for tens of millions of hryvnias is the purchase of grain, which has no documents of origin for cash and its further export abroad with the help of details of "risky" or front companies.
One striking example of gray exports is the criminal cases that concern gray exports from the Olympex grain terminal in 2021-2023, when it was actively managed by Odessa businessmen Sergei Groza and Vladimir Naumenko.
In particular, in January 2021, law enforcers were interested in a number of companies involved in grain export and related to the agroholding GNT Group of Sergey Groza and Vladimir Naumenko. LLC "Ferko", LLC "Metalsukrane Corp LTD", LLC "Grain Reloading Complex "Inzernoexport" and enterprise "Vtormetexport", belonging to GNT Group, actively used the requisites" risky" companies for export operations. In the course of the investigation, the territorial department of the BEB in the Odessa region identified at least three such "risky" enterprises: AUTSTAFF 19 LLC, ALISENTA TRADE LLC, and SOLTEK PRODUCT LLC. In addition, the investigation found that the exported grain was stored, among other things, in the warehouses of Olympex Coupe International LLC - which is also controlled by Groza and Naumenko.
Based on the results of the investigation, law enforcers found that none of the mentioned "risky" enterprises had no proof of purchase of grains that were planned to be exported - more than 2 thousand tons of corn, barley, wheat (this is only what was found by law enforcers during the searches). In addition, all these enterprises violated the requirements of financial and tax reporting, demonstrated zero profitability, and understated profit tax.
According to law enforcers' calculations, Groza and Naumenko's companies caused almost UAH 37.5m damage to the state within the framework of this criminal case alone. At the same time, the exporter of "gray" grain was Agiros LLC, which belongs to a well-known smuggler Vadim Alperin, against whom the SNBO imposed sanctions in 2021 and who was deprived of Ukrainian citizenship. And shipped these grains, according to media reports, another company controlled by Groza and Naumenko, "Attollo Granum."
This criminal proceeding is currently still under investigation.
Another criminal proceedinginvolving Groza and Naumenko's company, Olympex Coupe International LLC, is being investigated by the territorial department of the Kyiv City BEB. It was opened a year later, in 2022, but also concerns "gray" grain exports.
The case is being investigated under articles on tax evasion, forgery of documents for state registers, legalization (laundering) of proceeds of crime and illegal handling of weapons or ammunition.
The scheme used by Groza and Naumenko's company is identical to the one used earlier, only the names of the fictitious companies differ, and not all of them. In particular, it includes AUTSTAFF 19 LLC mentioned in another criminal proceeding.
In addition to this company, they also used the "risky" companies EXPRESS ALL and AGROTRANS-GROUP. With their help, according to the investigation, at least 40,000 tons of grain and oilseeds disappeared from the terminal in 2023.
In addition, BEB detectives believe that criminal activity related to tax evasion through gray exports of grain at the Olympex terminal continues.