After a 39-day campaign by the U.S. and its allies against Iran, Washington has faced a problem that military analysts have warned about for years: stockpiles of key American missiles are rapidly dwindling, and replenishing them could take years. This is stated in a new study by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which analyzes the scale of the depletion of U.S. missile arsenals and the pace of their replenishment.
UNN has analyzed the CSIS data and explains why even the world's greatest military power cannot quickly restore its stockpiles of precision-guided weapons, how this will affect support for Ukraine, and why the Pentagon is already talking about a "window of vulnerability" ahead of a potential war with China.
Which missiles the U.S. expended the most
According to CSIS estimates, during the war against Iran, the U.S. expended thousands of precision-guided missiles of various types. Air and missile defense system stockpiles were hit the hardest.
Specifically, this includes:
– over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles;
– between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot missiles;
– up to 290 THAAD interceptors;
– hundreds of SM-3 and SM-6 naval missiles;
– over 1,100 JASSM long-range missiles.
Analysts emphasize that the problem lies not only in the scale of use but also in the pace of production. Most of these systems are complex high-tech products that take years, not months, to manufacture.
Patriot and THAAD - the main problem for the U.S.
The most difficult situation is with air and missile defense systems. According to CSIS estimates, restoring Patriot stockpiles to pre-war levels will take at least until mid-2029; to achieve this, the U.S. will have to implement a record order for over 3,200 PAC-3 MSE missiles in the 2027 budget.
At the same time, Patriots are needed for several directions at once:
– to protect the U.S. territory itself;
– to support Ukraine;
– to fulfill contracts for NATO allies and Middle Eastern countries.
The study notes that since 2020 alone, U.S. allies have ordered nearly 1,900 PAC-3 missiles. The largest buyers were Saudi Arabia and Germany.
A similar situation exists with THAAD systems. After massive use during the campaign against Iran, the U.S. was effectively forced to review the order of deliveries, prioritizing its own needs over partner orders.
CSIS predicts that full restoration of THAAD stockpiles will only occur at the end of 2029.
Tomahawk - shortage until 2031
Cruise missiles like the Tomahawk pose a separate problem. Despite Raytheon's claims of being able to produce over 1,000 missiles per year, actual production in recent years has been significantly lower due to limited Pentagon orders.
On average, the U.S. purchased only about 86 Tomahawk missiles per year over the last decade. Because of this, replenishing stockpiles after the war with Iran could drag on until 2030–2031.
Meanwhile, Washington is forced to balance its own needs with allied contracts. For example, Japan has already ordered 400 Tomahawk missiles, Australia – over 200, and the Netherlands – 175.
CSIS explicitly points out that some of these deliveries may be delayed due to the priority of replenishing American arsenals.
Why the U.S. cannot quickly ramp up production
The key problem is not money, but time. The study notes that the Donald Trump administration has already signed a series of framework agreements with manufacturers to sharply increase defense industry capacity, and the 2027 U.S. budget also includes record spending on missile procurement.
However, even with maximum funding, production cannot be accelerated instantly. Analysts explain that the production cycle of a modern missile consists of several stages:
– contract conclusion;
– production launch;
– component manufacturing;
– testing;
– delivery.
For some systems, the production cycle alone takes over 30 months.
For example:
– Tomahawk – about 34 months;
– SM-6 – up to 37 months;
– Patriot PAC-3 – about 29 months;
– JASSM – about 36 months.
Furthermore, manufacturers must simultaneously increase factory capacity, hire personnel, and resolve component supply issues.
Window of vulnerability before China
CSIS explicitly warns that the depletion of American stockpiles creates a "window of vulnerability" in the event of a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. This primarily refers to a possible escalation around Taiwan.
Analysts note that the U.S. still has enough missiles for any "realistic scenario" in the Middle East. However, simultaneously waging a major war against China would become much more difficult.
Washington is paying special attention to the fact that China is closely analyzing the results of the campaign against Iran.
CSIS emphasizes that Beijing sees not only the strength of the American military but also the limitations of its industrial base. At the same time, the study's authors believe that a deterrent for China remains its lack of modern combat experience; unlike the U.S., the Chinese army has not participated in major wars for decades.
How this will affect Ukraine
For Ukraine, the problem of American stockpiles has direct significance.
Patriot missiles remain a key element in protecting Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistics. Additionally, the U.S. continues to transfer other precision-guided munitions to Kyiv.
However, CSIS explicitly states that Washington is already forced to review delivery priorities.
Specifically, the new PURL mechanism, through which NATO countries pay for the transfer of weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles, allowed for a temporary acceleration of Patriot deliveries to Kyiv. But in the future, the Trump administration may restrict exports even more strictly if the stockpile situation worsens.
In effect, the war in Ukraine, the conflict with Iran, and rising tensions around Taiwan have simultaneously created an unprecedented strain on the American defense-industrial complex.
The U.S. enters a new era of military production
The main conclusion of CSIS is that the West underestimated the scale of modern warfare. After decades of local conflicts, the U.S. and Europe proved unprepared for high-intensity war, where thousands of expensive missiles are expended in a matter of weeks.
Now Washington is effectively forced to rebuild its defense industry for a new reality.
CSIS emphasizes that even under an optimistic scenario, it will take the U.S. years to return missile stockpiles to pre-war levels. And even more time – to accumulate the arsenals deemed necessary for a potential major war.
Poland reports no delays in Patriot system deliveries from the US – Defense Minister04.05.26, 04:17