A confrontation is intensifying within Iran's leadership between those who support concluding a deal with the United States as soon as possible and representatives of the hard-line faction who advocate continuing the standoff. The outcome of this internal struggle could determine when and under what conditions the war with the United States and Israel will end, UNN reports, citing CNN.
Details
According to the television network, six months after the start of the war, two camps have effectively formed within Iran's leadership, assessing the country's further strategy differently.
The first includes Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker and negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as well as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They advocate Tehran using the current situation to reach an agreement with the United States while Iran, in their view, can still negotiate from a relatively strong position. Supporters of this approach point to the worsening economic situation, the consequences of sanctions and the naval blockade, damage to infrastructure, and the population's war fatigue.
Representatives of the hard-line conservative wing, including part of the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ultraconservative forces, take a different position. They believe Iran should not rush into an agreement with Washington, since the country has managed to withstand six months of war and preserve its main governing institutions. In their calculation, prolonging the conflict could increase the United States' economic and political costs to such an extent that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump would be forced to soften its demands.
The hard-line supporters' position was strengthened by recent personnel appointments in Iran's security structures. In particular, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei became secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He put forward a number of conditions to the United States for ending the confrontation, including lifting the sanctions and blockade, unfreezing Iranian assets, and ending U.S. military operations.
At the same time, the final decision on Iran's strategic course is expected to depend on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. However, since coming to power, he has made virtually no public appearances. Reuters previously reported, citing Iranian officials, that Khamenei sustained serious injuries during the first strikes of the war and is running the country from a shelter.
Against this backdrop, Western media report, the IRGC's influence has grown significantly. The American side also doubts that Iran's civilian representatives taking part in diplomatic contacts can independently guarantee the implementation of a potential agreement without the support of the military leadership.
Economic pressure
The situation is complicated by the deterioration of Iran's economic position. According to data cited by Reuters, annual inflation in the country reached about 66% in July, while food prices rose significantly. Foreign trade is also declining amid sanctions and restrictions on maritime transport. The economic situation itself is one of the main arguments made by supporters of a swift end to the war. Their opponents, by contrast, believe that a public display of weakness will only encourage the United States to increase pressure.
One of the central issues in a potential agreement remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the war. Iran uses control over shipping in the strait as one of its main levers of pressure. Washington insists on restoring freedom of navigation, while Tehran links this to the lifting of the American blockade and sanctions.
According to CNN, the outcome of the struggle between the pragmatic and hard-line wings of Iran's authorities could become one of the key factors determining the duration of the war.
Supporters of an agreement believe Iran should take advantage of the opportunity to conclude a deal before the economic situation deteriorates further. Their opponents calculate that time will work against the United States and force Washington to make concessions.
To remind
A few days earlier, President Donald Trump said that the United States was not holding negotiations with Iran, as Washington was focusing on economically punishing Tehran, promising to punish countries that do business with the Islamic Republic.