Clean export losses related to the restoration of the pre-war trade regime with the European Union from June 6 to June-December this year will amount to about $800 million. This estimate was announced by Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk during a press briefing, reports UNN.
Details
We really have the autonomous trade preferences granted by the EU at the beginning of the full-scale war ceasing to operate on June 6. We are returning to the terms of the deep and comprehensive free trade area with the EU, which provides for about 30 quotas. If supplies are carried out only within these quotas, this will certainly have a significant impact on exports, primarily grain
At the same time, he reminded that Ukraine already had certain quotas in the past year.
We are talking about corn, eggs, sugar, oats, poultry, and at the same time, the export of these goods took place outside these quotas, which indicates the preservation of the competitiveness of Ukrainian goods on the EU market even taking into account these quotas
He noted that, in addition, last year, thanks to the maritime corridor, supplies of Ukrainian food products to the markets of Asia and Africa resumed. These processes are ongoing and even intensifying this year.
Therefore, taking all this into account, according to our estimates, net export losses, taking into account the continuation of trade, quotas and reorientation to the markets of other countries, will amount to about $800 million in June-December this year
He noted that, according to the National Bank, this effect is significant for the balance of payments, for the Ukrainian foreign exchange market, but it is not critical.
We can definitely compensate with appropriate measures of the monetary and exchange rate policy of the National Bank to avoid negative effects on our ability to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and ensure the transfer of inflation to the 5% target
Addition
The EU Council adopted a regulation on the extension of the suspension of EU safeguard measures on iron and steel to support Ukraine's economy in the context of Russia's aggressive war. The goal is to alleviate the problems faced by Ukrainian producers and exporters as a result of the war.
On Friday, June 6, the European Union will start collecting duties on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products.
The so-called autonomous trade measures (ATM), which abolish duties on Ukrainian goods, have been in effect since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to allow Ukraine to export its agricultural products by land.
But EU countries bordering Ukraine, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, complained that Ukrainian imports were undermining domestic prices and sparking unrest among farmers.
The European Commission has introduced an "emergency brake" that restricts the import of food products such as eggs, poultry, sugar, oats, corn, cereals and honey, which can be activated once the level of imports exceeds a certain threshold.
The measures end at the beginning of June and, as reported, will not be extended this time. The agreements expire on June 6, and the EU plans to replace them with "transitional measures" while both sides update their joint trade agreement.