The Defense Forces attacked a number of enterprises in Russia’s rubber industry with long-range FP-1 drones. Their products are used in the production of solid rocket propellant, including for Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Will the attacks affect the intensity of shelling of Ukraine? UNN investigated together with military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Why Ukraine is attacking Russia’s rubber plants
There are around ten large enterprises in this industry in Russia overall. According to Fire Point, as of October 25, six of them had sustained 11 successful attacks. Tolyattikauchuk came under attack most often, having been targeted at least four times. The Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant was targeted three more times.
In just the past few days, FP-1 attack drones struck three major enterprises in Russia’s rubber industry at once: Voronezhsintezkauchuk, Omsk Rubber, and Tolyattikauchuk.
At first glance, the rubber industry does not appear to be directly related to weapons production. However, these enterprises manufacture not only materials for automobile tires but also polymers used in the production of solid rocket propellant.
One of them is polybutadiene-acrylonitrile. It binds the components of rocket propellant into a single solid grain while also serving as an additional fuel. Replacing such a component is not easy—it requires new formulations and testing. Russia’s Iskander-M ballistic missiles operate on solid propellant. Strikes on the rubber industry are strikes against the chemical foundation of Russia’s missile production
Will strikes on the rubber industry lead to a reduction in Iskander production?
According to military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, polymer components play an important role in the production of solid rocket propellant. Therefore, damage to enterprises that supply the relevant raw materials could potentially affect the operations of Russian missile manufacturers.
Rubbers and related polymers are used to create solid rocket propellant. In particular, the 9M723 ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system are equipped with solid-fuel engines. In general, missiles of this class, including ballistic and aeroballistic missiles, primarily use solid-propellant propulsion systems. Accordingly, polymer components play an important role in the formation and stabilization of rocket propellant
According to him, damage to several plants does not mean that Russian ballistic missile production will stop. moscow may seek alternative sources for the necessary components, including in China, India, and other countries with developed chemical industries.
However, replacing domestic production with imports could result in additional costs for the kremlin, more complicated logistics, and increased dependence on foreign partners.
If Russia is forced to purchase the necessary components abroad, this could increase the cost of production, including rocket propellant and finished missiles. In addition, the dependence of Russia’s military-industrial complex on external suppliers will increase, while the capabilities of domestic production will come under additional pressure
Systematic attacks will lead to more serious consequences
In Kovalenko’s view, one of the decisive factors in the effectiveness of strikes is the nature of the damage to industrial enterprises. If only auxiliary facilities are hit, production will be restored relatively quickly. By contrast, damage to technological equipment, power-supply systems, purification systems, or other critical production units could cause plants to remain idle for considerably longer.
In one case, an enterprise may resume operations after relatively uncomplicated repairs in two or three weeks. In another, restoration may take months. And if complex equipment is involved—equipment that Russia cannot obtain promptly because of sanctions—repairs may turn into a much more serious problem
Repeated attacks are particularly painful, according to the military expert. Even if a single strike does not shut down a plant for long, regular damage forces the enterprise to spend resources on repairs instead of maintaining stable production.
In such a case, it is precisely the systematic nature of the strikes that may have significantly more serious consequences than a single attack
In this context, the repeated attacks on TolyattiKauchuk and the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant will have a cumulative effect.
Will Russia reduce the intensity of its shelling of Ukraine
Despite the potential problems for Russia's missile industry, according to the military expert, an immediate reduction in the number of ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine should not be expected.
Kovalenko explains that the intensity of the shelling depends not only on current missile production, but also on stockpiles already accumulated, the rate at which they are used, and Russia's ability to quickly compensate for production losses.
Even if damage to chemical plants leads to a reduction in the production of new missiles, the Russians will use accumulated missiles for some time.
Kovalenko explained that assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes requires monitoring the production dynamics of Iskanders, changes in production costs, the duration of the production cycle, and the dependence of Russian plants on imported components.
If, as a result of systematic strikes, Russia really begins producing fewer missiles than it uses during attacks on Ukraine, this will gradually affect its ability to maintain the previous intensity of shelling. However, this effect will not necessarily be immediate: it will depend on existing stockpiles, the ability to compensate for losses, and the speed at which damaged production facilities are restored
Thus, strikes against Russia's rubber industry, and especially systematic and repeated attacks, increase the economic and production pressure on the chemical base of Russia's missile industry. However, the extent to which this will affect the production of Iskander missiles and their use during attacks on Ukraine will depend on the ability of Russian plants to quickly resume operations and on existing missile stockpiles.