Russian seaborne oil supplies continue to decline for the fifth consecutive week, and Urals prices are falling to their lowest levels in two years – a consequence of new US sanctions and the reformatting of sales markets. This is stated in a Bloomberg article, writes UNN.
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Russian crude oil supplies show a steady decline – volumes have fallen by more than half a million barrels per day since the announcement of new American sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil.
According to Bloomberg's vessel loading monitoring, in the four-week period to November 23, Russia exported an average of 3.25 million barrels per day, which is 110 thousand less than in the previous reporting period. In total, since mid-October, export flows have fallen by 530 thousand barrels per day.
The deterioration in dynamics coincided with active diplomatic contacts between the US and Russia regarding a possible peace plan for Ukraine. However, in parallel, the parties continued night air strikes, including attacks on Russian Black Sea ports.
Indian refineries, which have recently been a key buyer of Urals, have begun to reorient themselves to alternative supplies. This has forced an increasing amount of Russian oil to stand idle at sea and encourages exporters to work through semi-legal schemes – from transshipment of cargo from ship to ship to disabling navigation transponders.
The decline in flows caused another drop in prices, as a result of which Russia's weekly revenues fell to approximately $1.13 billion – the lowest figure in two and a half years. Urals has significantly fallen in price, as three-quarters of this grade traditionally went to India – and now Indian refineries are demanding the lowest price conditions in two years.
In the last week to November 23, 31 tankers shipped 23.52 million barrels of Russian oil, slightly more than a week earlier, although the average daily export grew only to 3.36 million barrels. Two separate cargoes of Kazakh Kebco oil departed from Novorossiysk.
A decline in activity is also observed in the Far Eastern directions: nine vessels left the port of Kozmino for the second consecutive week, while only one tanker departed from the Sakhalin-1 terminal instead of three a week earlier. Arctic shipments from Murmansk decreased, while the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga somewhat compensated for the overall decline.
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Weather conditions are beginning to affect logistics: strong storms in the Nakhodka area, near Kozmino, recorded wind gusts that potentially affected the port's operations.
As a result, in the four weeks to November 23, the total value of Russian oil exports fell by approximately $90 million – to $1.13 billion per week, which was the lowest since April 2023.