Despite the ongoing brutal aggression against Ukraine, a prominent expert on Russia, Alexander Gabuev, predicts that the Kremlin's economic resources could run out in 12–18 months if the West significantly strengthens and more consistently applies sanctions. This is reported by the German publication Bild, writes UNN.
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As Bild notes, Alexander Gabuev, who heads the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, believes that time is working against Vladimir Putin. He emphasized that Putin will have enough money for about 18 months to wage war.
Further sanctions could shorten this period
He points to the existence of smaller oil and raw material producers that have not yet been sanctioned. According to the expert, to make the war unaffordable for Putin, it is necessary to strengthen economic measures and more strictly apply existing punitive measures, particularly against China, India, and the UAE, which buy Russian oil and help circumvent sanctions.
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Regarding negotiations: Gabuev considers the chances of peace talks to be practically zero at the moment, as Russia insists on "very far-reaching demands" and believes it has time.
Military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich expressed a less optimistic view, warning against hasty conclusions regarding specific timeframes. He noted that it is difficult to accurately assess the financial and political reserves that Russia can mobilize.