In 2025, Ukraine's construction industry shows a gradual but uneven recovery. While developers in western and some central regions have already returned to project implementation, frontline areas are still in a state of stagnation. Denys Shulha, co-founder of the "Encyclopedia of New Buildings" website, told a journalist from UNN about this.
Has the construction of residential complexes really resumed in 2025?
The construction industry in Ukraine is showing a gradual recovery, but the situation remains extremely uneven and largely depends on the region. In some regions, construction began to revive as early as 2023. There, most developers have returned to implementing suspended projects, and new residential complexes are actively entering the market.
At the same time, other regions, especially those closer to the combat zone, remain in a state of uncertainty. Some projects have been frozen indefinitely, and developers have either left the market altogether or are working at a slow pace due to lack of demand and investment. Thus, the real estate market in Ukraine is currently developing asymmetrically: in some places with cautious optimism, and in others - in conditions of deep stagnation.
Residential construction in Ukraine: regional analysis
According to the expert, the construction of new residential complexes in the Western regions has almost completely recovered and returned to the pre-war level, although it was completely suspended at the beginning of the full-scale war.
I think in the Western regions, these are 8 regions (Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Volyn, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi), construction has recovered almost 100%, with an error of up to 2-5%. That is, it has almost returned to the pre-war level, and this began to happen gradually within 3-6 months after the start of the war.
In Kyiv, the situation also looks quite optimistic. The construction of new buildings, according to Shulha, has recovered to approximately 70% due to high demand and a large number of people moving to the capital in search of housing. However, there is one peculiarity – developers face competition from the secondary real estate market.
I know that currently, an apartment on the secondary market is often offered for conditionally the same $1200-1500/square meter that developers ask for. However, such an apartment already has renovations and the building is inhabited. Of course, people who have moved from regions close to combat zones need to live somewhere now, and the price on the secondary market is the same... they choose such housing. So... due to the drop in demand for new buildings, construction is not recovering as quickly.
The expert explained that most developers depend on buyers. In the initial stages of construction, they have approximately 20% of their own funds for investment, and the rest they receive from clients through early booking, regular booking, and purchasing apartments at the beginning of the project.
As for cities located directly near the front line, the worst situation is in Kherson, where construction is currently completely stopped. It is not much better in Kharkiv.
There is a tendency when, even with suspended construction, the sales department continues to operate. So, in fact, on paper, construction is ongoing. If you look at the numbers, about 15% of new buildings in Kharkiv continue to be built. In reality, if you look, it's up to 5%. On the remaining objects, there may be conditionally 5-10 people, so this is not construction in the full sense.
In Dnipro, according to Shulha, the situation is similar to Kharkiv, and for example, in Sumy, there is a psychological barrier that prevents the deployment of large-scale construction due to constant informational threats of an offensive on the region.
Real estate investment in new buildings: current trends 2025
Despite the difficult security situation and unstable economy, investments in primary real estate remain relevant in 2025. The greatest demand is currently observed in the Western regions, but the expert advises not to rush into buying housing in popular regions, such as Zakarpattia or Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
According to the expert, prices per square meter in these cities already significantly exceed their real value, which reduces investment attractiveness. Instead, it is worth paying attention to less promoted, but more promising regions - Volyn or Ternopil regions. Here, new buildings have not yet reached their price peak.
Interesting investment opportunities are also opening up in Kyiv and Odesa. According to the expert, these two cities are currently undervalued due to objective risks. However, after the war, the real estate market in the capital and in the south will show rapid growth. In Odesa, in particular, according to the expert, prices are already gradually rising, despite the war, which indicates growing demand. But a "surge" in prices and construction rates after the victory, according to the expert, will be inevitable. And therefore, investments can bring significant profits in the future.
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What you need to know when buying an apartment in a new building
When planning investments in primary real estate, first of all, it is worth assessing the reliability of the developer. As the expert notes, their reputation plays a key role - the history of projects, experience in the market, transparency. However, even companies that have successfully worked in Ukraine for more than 10-15 years are not immune to financial difficulties or bankruptcy. As an example, he cites the situation with "UkrBud", which unexpectedly went bankrupt, or the case with "Arkada" bank, which financed housing construction, but due to management problems and the liquidation of the financial institution, investors suffered significant losses.
Despite such risks, the expert emphasizes: the presence of a well-known developer still significantly increases the chances of a successful deal. In addition, before signing any documents, it is important to carefully check all permits: land ownership, urban planning conditions, construction permits. In most cases, copies of such documents are available directly in sales departments and should be provided without delay.
Another key aspect is choosing the optimal apartment size. If considering the property from an investment perspective, it is better to opt for one-bedroom apartments: they have higher demand in the rental market and are easier to sell.
If you have enough funds to purchase spacious housing, instead of one three-room apartment, it is better to look at three one-room apartments. This is the golden rule of investing. Currently, the demand for one-room apartments has increased. If before the war, developers planned about 50% of one-room apartments, 40% of two-room apartments, and the rest were large, now the share of one-room apartments is about 60%, which indicates that the demand for them is growing rapidly.
Shulha also adds that this is partly due to people having more modest financial capabilities and currently being unable to afford to buy or even rent large apartments. Therefore, compact real estate will provide greater flexibility and stable income.
At the same time, he does not advise choosing overly small apartments: overly cramped spaces may be unsuitable for comfortable living, even for tenants.
For a one-room apartment, it is desirable to focus on an area of 40 square meters or more. For a two-room apartment – from 60 square meters. In general, apartments up to 100 meters sell better and faster than overly large ones. Such apartments, if the price is attractive – it is better to consider them for yourself.
Location also plays an important role. The choice of area should be based on your specific goals - whether it is an investment for further sale, or long-term rental, as well as taking into account the peculiarities of the city where the property is located.
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New buildings 2025: forecasts and prospects for the industry
The residential real estate market in Ukraine today, like many other areas, is directly dependent on the war. According to the expert, the security situation determines the dynamics of development, investment sentiment, and pricing policy in the regions. And although certain regions show rapid growth, analysts warn: this trend will not be long-term.
"Undoubtedly, if hostilities end tomorrow, the real estate market will begin to recover rapidly," the expert notes.
First of all, according to him, an explosive recovery should be expected in Kyiv and Odesa. These are the cities that will show the most dynamic development rates after the victory. Immediately after them, the expert predicts, Kharkiv will become active, followed by Dnipro. These megacities have powerful economic and demographic potential, so their construction revival will only be a matter of time.
Kyiv and Odesa will shoot up immediately. In principle, the construction situation there is currently holding up despite the war, but they are very underestimated in terms of demand and construction. However, the situation will change dramatically as soon as there is at least a truce in the sky.
Also, due to relative safety, the demand for real estate in the Kyiv region is growing, with duplexes and small townhouses being particularly popular. According to the expert, houses up to 100 square meters are more readily purchased.
At the same time, the conditionally safest regions today - Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, according to the expert, are very overestimated due to high demand from internally displaced persons who were looking for safer housing in rear regions.
In Uzhhorod, in particular, during the full-scale war, the pace of development doubled compared to the pre-war period. Not by 20-30 or 50%, but by two times.
However, the expert noted: such activity will not last long. After the end of hostilities, the market in these locations will change significantly. Some displaced people will return home or move to other regions where there will be more opportunities for work and life. This will lead to a decrease in demand, and along with it - a slowdown in the pace of development.
"In Uzhhorod, in particular, currently more than 60% of developers are from other cities. As soon as they leave, there will be much fewer local developers, and the pace of construction will decrease," the expert warns. A similar situation, in his opinion, awaits Ivano-Frankivsk region.
Meanwhile, Lviv, despite active construction, has a more stable outlook. As the expert notes, despite the widespread belief that housing in Lviv is massively bought by newcomers, the largest share of buyers here are from the Lviv region and neighboring regions. Such a demand structure ensures market stability. Therefore, even after the war, the pace of housing construction in Lviv will not change significantly - the region showed stable development even before the full-scale invasion, and this trend is likely to continue.
Thus, the expert advises approaching real estate investments in 2025 strategically: taking into account not only the current security situation, but also the long-term changes that will inevitably occur after the war.