The planned increase in military spending by NATO countries could lead to an additional 1320 million tons of planet-warming emissions over the next decade, comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions produced by Brazil, the world's fifth-largest emitter, according to a new report, writes UNN with reference to The Guardian.
Details
Military activities require intensive use of fossil fuels, but official data on military emissions in various countries are fragmented or completely absent, the publication notes.
A review of 11 recent scientific studies conducted by Scientists for Global Responsibility showed that every additional $100 billion in military spending leads to the emission of approximately 32 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2-equivalent) into the atmosphere.
Emissions come from direct sources such as combat aircraft, warships, and armored vehicles, as well as from indirect emissions from equipment transportation, complex global supply chains, and the consequences of military actions themselves.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and statements by US President Donald Trump, NATO announced plans to increase military spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) as part of a broader plan for a security spending target of 5% of GDP for each member country.
According to the report, achieving the 3.5% target will add 132 million tons of CO2-equivalent to the atmosphere, which is roughly equivalent to the amount of carbon emissions annually produced by 345 gas power plants or the entire oil-producing country of Oman. The planned increase in funding is in addition to a $200 billion increase in funding between 2019 and 2024, which has already led to an increase in NATO's military carbon footprint by approximately 64 million tons of CO2, the publication writes.
"It is extremely difficult to understand how the current and planned increases in military spending can be reconciled with the transformative actions needed to prevent dangerous climate change," said SGR, a UK organization that promotes responsible science and technology.
The volume of military emissions is enormous, but they are difficult to track due to a lack of transparency and mandatory accounting, and forecasting the expenditure of additional budget funds is associated with uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the total military carbon footprint in 2019 was estimated at approximately 5.5% of global emissions, excluding greenhouse gases generated by combat operations and post-conflict recovery. This exceeds the combined contribution of civil aviation (2%) and shipping (3%).
Since then, global military spending has soared, reaching $2.72 trillion in 2024 – the highest figure since the end of the Cold War, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Israel's military budget jumped to $46.5 billion in 2024 – the largest increase in the world. At the same time, the Pentagon's budget for 2026 is expected to grow to $1 trillion due to Trump's tax and spending bill, a 17% increase from last year.
The report recommends obliging countries with military spending exceeding 0.5% of GDP to provide reliable data to the UN, facilitate the assessment of conflict-related emissions, and develop plans to phase out fossil fuels through technological and non-technological measures, including peace agreements, arms control, and disarmament initiatives.