Recently, Western media have increasingly reported on a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states, particularly Estonia. However, experts believe that there is currently no real scenario for a full-scale invasion. Political observer Hennadiy Dubov and international expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky stated this in a comment to UNN.
Provocations are possible, but a real invasion is not currently visible
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and conflicts around the world, there are assumptions that Russia may try to destabilize the situation in the Baltic states, taking advantage of the international community's dispersed attention. However, political observer Hennadiy Dubov believes that such scenarios currently appear exaggerated.
According to him, Russia can carry out various provocations, but this does not mean preparation for a full-scale invasion.
Currently, a certain conjuncture has indeed developed, which theoretically could give Putin room for maneuver. Provocations can be practically anywhere – these could be explosives, drones over airports, or something similar. But if we talk about a full-fledged military invasion, then completely different prerequisites are needed for that
The expert also points out that some arguments presented in the media in favor of such a scenario contradict each other.
It is often said that due to conflicts in the world, energy prices are rising, and Russia is receiving additional income. But at the same time, it is assumed that it will start military actions precisely in the Baltic region. This seems illogical, because important energy routes pass there, including the transportation of liquefied gas. In such a case, Russia itself would create risks for its own supplies
The role of media and the discussion about defense budgets in Europe
Dubov also draws attention to the fact that the topic of a possible Russian attack is actively discussed in German media, particularly in the publication Bild.
In his opinion, this is partly due to internal political processes in Germany and discussions about increasing defense spending.
As soon as Friedrich Merz became chancellor, the discussion about security and defense policy intensified in Germany. And the media, including Bild, are actually keeping this topic in the information field. This is one way to mobilize public support for increasing defense budgets and legislative changes
According to him, information waves about possible Russian aggression do not always mean real military preparation.
Therefore, I do not see any real risks of a full-scale military aggression against the Baltic states today. Many of the arguments currently being discussed rather work in the political or informational sphere
Is a provocation scenario in Narva possible?
One of the scenarios sometimes mentioned in the public space is a provocation in the Estonian border town of Narva, where a significant part of the population is Russian-speaking.
However, Dubov notes that even such a scenario would require significant resources.
Even if we talk about a conditional scenario with the so-called "little green men" in Narva, any such actions require serious military resources. Here one needs to ask a simple question - does Russia have these resources and what is the ultimate goal of such actions
According to the expert, a large-scale escalation in the Baltic region could lead to serious economic consequences for Russia.
In fact, this would mean a trade blockade in the Baltic Sea by the Scandinavian states, Germany, and other countries. In modern conditions, such a scenario for Russia looks simply absurd
Russian Ministry of Defense bill and the "African Corps"
Particular attention was drawn to the bill of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which allows "extraterritorial use of formations of the armed forces of the Russian Federation to protect citizens of the Russian Federation."
Similar decisions in Russia were already made before the start of major military operations - in 2014 before the annexation of Crimea and in 2022 before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, Dubov believes that the current document may be primarily related to Russia's military presence in Africa.
This law is largely written for the operations that Russia is already conducting abroad. This refers, in particular, to African countries. After the structure of the PMC "Wagner" was effectively destroyed, its functions are gradually being transferred to formations controlled by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
According to the expert, the so-called "African Corps" can operate in the same countries where Wagner mercenaries previously worked.
In fact, we are talking about Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, and other states. That is, the new bill could become the legal basis for the use of Russian military personnel in these regions
An attack on the Baltics would confirm the Kremlin's expansionist plans
International expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, in a comment to UNN, noted that a hypothetical Russian attack on the Baltic states would confirm the Kremlin's broader geopolitical ambitions.
If Russia dared to attack the Baltic states, it would confirm that Ukraine was right when it spoke about the threat of Russian expansion. For Putin, the goal is not limited to Ukraine alone - it is about an attempt to restore influence in the territory of the former Soviet Union
However, according to the expert, such a scenario would have complex consequences for Ukraine as well.
In the event of an attack on one of the NATO countries, a significant part of the Alliance's resources could be directed to its defense. This means that certain resources that are currently used to support Ukraine could be reallocated
Hybrid provocations remain the most likely scenario
According to the expert, Russia may continue to pressure the Baltic states through hybrid methods - information campaigns, provocations, or subversive activities.
As long as the full-scale war against Ukraine continues, Russia is unlikely to risk opening another major front. But attempts to destabilize the situation, test the West's reaction, or create informational pressure are quite possible