France spent years strengthening its influence in Armenia through political and military support for Yerevan and direct contacts with the Armenian leadership. Now this structure is losing stability—precisely when the United States is becoming increasingly entrenched in the South Caucasus. This is stated in an article by Channel 5, reports UNN.
A year after the signing of the Washington Declaration, Washington, Baku, and Yerevan confirmed on August 10 their commitment to implementing the agreements of August 8, 2025—implementing TRIPP, mutually recognizing sovereignty, and developing new transport and economic ties. France remained outside this format, while Pashinyan has still not proposed including it among the project's participants.
Paris took this painfully. On February 13, Le Journal du Dimanche called the agreement on TRIPP "a serious blow to France… effectively a betrayal." The publication emphasized that under the terms of the 99-year lease, the United States would obtain 75% control over the company responsible for constructing roads, bridges, and railway tracks, while Paris found itself "completely excluded from this major regional project."
Another blow to France's position was a reshuffle among Pashinyan's associates. On July 31, Araik Harutyunyan, one of the key advocates of the French direction in the government, left his post as chief of staff to the Prime Minister of Armenia. According to sources in the security services, Harutyunyan was recruited by French intelligence and passed information to Paris about domestic political processes and the plans of Pashinyan's team.
Harutyunyan had long remained one of Paris's main channels of communication with the Armenian government, maintaining contacts with French diplomats and representatives of state institutions. During Emmanuel Macron's visit to Yerevan in May 2026, he was part of the small circle of Armenian officials who accompanied the French president.
Pashinyan appointed Lilith Makunts, the former Ambassador of Armenia to the United States, in his place. Against the backdrop of TRIPP, this replacement became another signal of the balance shifting within Yerevan's Western direction in favor of Washington. As a result, Paris was simultaneously left outside an important regional project and lost an influential figure in Pashinyan's administration.
However, this does not mean that Armenia is simply replacing France with the United States. Yerevan is not abandoning contacts with Moscow, even amid Russian trade pressure and increased support from the EU. Following the June elections, Pashinyan continued contacts with the Russian leadership and Armenia's participation in the mechanisms of the EAEU, although at the end of May the Russian Federation began imposing restrictions on imports of a number of Armenian goods.
In turn, the European Union increased its support for Yerevan: on June 19, the European Commission allocated €34 million to Armenia, and on July 2 confirmed an additional €18 million as part of the overall €52 million package. On the same day, Brussels announced measures to facilitate Armenian goods' access to the EU market. However, neither the Russian restrictions nor European support led Yerevan to abandon its Russian direction.
In the June elections, Pashinyan positioned himself as Armenia's main pro-Western force, contrasting his course with the former dependence on Moscow. Subsequent steps revealed a more complex picture: the United States is strengthening its position, the EU is helping diversify economic ties, while Moscow remains important to Yerevan through the EAEU. France, meanwhile, finds itself in the least advantageous position—it is losing both its participation in the new regional configuration and one of the important channels of access to the Armenian authorities. The June elections did not resolve Yerevan's foreign-policy dilemma, but for Paris, the period of privileged access to the Armenian leadership appears to be coming to an end.