Belarus is already transforming its power system, but not in a democratic way, and is building a certain model of the Iranian model. Russia will try to interfere in these changes to maintain control. Igar Tyshkevych, an expert of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said this in a commentary to UNN.
Legitimacy is about perception. Since there is a political conflict between Lukashenko's regime and the EU countries and Ukraine, it is logical that these countries perceive this legal act as illegitimate. On the other hand, if there is no political conflict, let's say with Asian countries, then there is no question of illegitimacy. So it's more a question of who perceives it how. In terms of the organization of the election process, yes, this organization was most likely not transparent. It's not possible to talk about the numbers, how real they are, because there was no possibility of verification. This is not the first year that there have been problems, including with the work of election observers, they (problems with the work of observers - ed.) have been in Belarus for the last 25 years
Tyshkevich explained what needs to happen for democratic elections to take place in Belarus.
"A change in the political system, a transformation. The question is simply whether the elections will be democratic in accordance with OSCE standards. Or whether these elections will be recognized. For example, the elections in Azerbaijan, Aliyev is the president of Azerbaijan, the elections in Turkey. Were they democratic? But Erdogan is the president," Tyshkevich said.
He noted that democratic elections are a political transformation, including the transformation of state institutions.
"If we take exemplary democratic elections so that the OSCE has no complaints, this is one thing. As for the change of Lukashenko's regime, it could be a "palace coup" at some stage," the expert noted.
Tyshkevich also explained Russia's influence on political processes in Belarus.
Russia is, of course, a very strong factor that influences the situation in the country, but it cannot be called a key and decisive factor. Belarus is already transforming its power system, not in a democratic way, but in a way that resembles the Iranian model. Moreover, the first options and concepts were ready in 2019. Now these concepts are being introduced into the legislation, and new bodies are being created. This is in fact a new system that will sooner or later lead to a transit of power. We don't know yet whether it will be a Kazakh-style transit of power or an Iranian-style transit of power. Will this format include Lukashenko's sudden departure from power? This is also possible, but it is only one of the options
Tyshkevich emphasized that it will take a long time to achieve a democratic election process in Belarus.
"If we are talking about a completely democratic process, without violations, then this is a very long process, a decade. Because even in the Ukrainian elections there are certain remarks, including the so-called buckwheat factor, etc. In terms of changing the system, it is likely to happen within the next five years. Will there be democracy immediately after that? No," Tyshkevych said.
He noted that Russia will try to interfere with these changes to maintain control.
"Russia will try to interfere in the process, Russia will try to influence the process. Russia remains a player, and Russia will try to force the creation of additional pro-Russian forces or parties, movements. On the other hand, there are other players who are also already manifesting themselves in Belarus. This is the activation of China, the beginning of Turkey's activation. Today, Russia is dominant, but I advise you to look at such a thing as the opposition in Uzbekistan. It was perceived 10 years ago as Russia's backyard. Now it is China's zone of influence," Tyshkevich explained.
He noted that Russia will certainly fight for its zone of influence, as it does in the Caucasus, but it is unlikely that this influence will be permanent.
"Of course, if there are certain changes in Russia's top leadership, there will be more room for maneuver, including for Belarus," Tyshkevich added.
Addendum
The Central Election Commission has announced preliminary results of the so-called presidential election in Belarus. It is stated that 86.82% of voters voted for Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
The elections were held against the backdrop of continued international criticism of the Lukashenko regime and internal tensions in society.
The head of the European Union's diplomatic service Kaja Kallas emphasized that such elections are a direct violation of democratic principles. lukashenko, according to her, is only consolidating his stay in power, which has long lost international trust.
Belarusian dictator alexander Lukashenko said that he did not care whether the West would recognize the results of the elections in Belarus.
As early as January 23, Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi stated that Ukraine sees no prerequisites for restoring contacts with Oleksandr Lukashenko, so the issue of recognizing his legitimacy after the announcement of the so-called "official" results of the "elections" is not relevant for Kyiv.