Russia is bogged down on the Ukrainian battlefield and is launching massive strikes on Kyiv. In European capitals, fears are growing that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will "try to reshuffle the cards further by expanding the conflict to Europe," The Wall Street Journal reports, according to UNN.
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In recent weeks, the publication notes, "Russia has made increasingly bellicose statements against the Baltic states."
"It threatened to bomb 'decision-making centers' in Latvia, accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian drone operators, which Latvian authorities deny," the publication writes. Furthermore, "Russia's Ministry of Defense has also published the addresses of companies allegedly working on drone production with Ukraine in eight European countries, warning of 'unpredictable consequences' and 'sharp escalation' if military aid to Kyiv does not stop," the publication points out.
"While fears that Russia could expand the conflict to Europe are not new, recent events have made them more urgent," the publication notes. Several European national security officials warned that "Russia may try to test the unity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by attacking one of the Baltic countries, Swedish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or alliance territory in the Arctic."
"The security situation in Europe has deteriorated over the past 24 months, and we see an increasing tendency on the Russian side to take greater operational risks in its hybrid operations, moving also to kinetic elements," Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said in an interview. "We realize that we need to focus on strengthening our ability to deter and defend against the Russians."
Recent threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO and his moves to reduce the number of U.S. troops deployed in Europe have undermined this deterrence, the publication observes.
Senior European officials fear that Russia may see an "opening" in the next 12 months, as the oil shock from a war with Iran creates additional political upheaval in Europe, bolstering far-right parties seeking a return to buying Russian oil and gas and ending aid to Ukraine
"We know that Russia's goal is to threaten the entire European security architecture, so there is every reason to be extremely vigilant, continue to support Ukraine and, of course, continue efforts to rearm Europe," said Benjamin Haddad, France's Minister for European Affairs. Next year, France will hold presidential elections in which a candidate more friendly to Russia will have a high chance of winning, the publication writes.
Intelligence and military officials from several European countries report that "there are no signs that Russia will actually move troops or equipment to carry out attacks on the Baltic states or other locations outside Ukraine in the near future." But, they add, "Putin will face difficult choices in the coming months due to the simple arithmetic of attrition."
According to Western intelligence estimates, "Russian forces are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month, more than the Kremlin can recruit." "Continuing the war in Ukraine at the current pace will soon become unsustainable without resorting to forced mobilization—something Russia has not done since a one-time recruitment campaign for 300,000 troops in 2022. Such a move would have enormous consequences both inside and outside Russia," the publication says.
"If you simply mobilize for this war, then you signal that you are not actually winning this war," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in an interview. "So a moment comes when they need to escalate to justify mobilization. And that is a very dangerous moment. Of course, no one can see what is going on in Putin's head, but this could be a calculation to move forward and change the linearity of this war."
"The current stalemate is largely driven by the advances of Ukraine—and Russia—in drone warfare. What was once a front line is now a vast 'kill zone'," the publication writes.
"There are no signs that Putin's strategic goal—dominance over all of Ukraine and a redistribution of the balance of power across Europe—has been scaled back, despite Moscow's challenges on the battlefield," the publication notes. "Russia may be changing its tactics, but it has not changed its strategy and its goals, and it will not stop on its own," said Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa. "Its imperialist and revanchist aspirations remain."
As the publication points out, "in Russia's official discourse, which has been relatively conciliatory toward the U.S. since Trump's election, the EU, which now provides the bulk of support for Ukraine, appears as an implacable enemy that must be punished or destroyed."
"Russia clearly views the European Union as a threat to its system of governance, which consists of oppression and fear," EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and the Rule of Law Michael McGrath said in an interview. "Ultimately, their goal is to destroy the European Union. And we should have no illusions about this, because they do not want a large, powerful, and united democratic bloc on their doorstep."
The publication points out that in recent military exercises, Ukrainian drone teams quickly defeated much larger NATO force units. "The problem is that Russian forces have comparable experience and drone equipment, and would likely perform much better against European militaries than against Ukraine, especially if the U.S. is not quick to help," the publication writes.
To launch such an escalation, Russia would first have to replenish its military ranks. "Mobilization is, technically, absolutely feasible; their mobilization system has been fixed. But it would also create serious internal problems and pressure, which could then lead in various interesting directions. It would be a risky decision for Putin," said Kaupo Rosin, director of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service. "Problems inside Russia are starting to pile up: battlefield failures, the financial situation, and deep strikes by Ukraine that affect not only the economy but also the people."
Jonson, the Swedish defense minister, recalled that hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled the country after mobilization began in the fall of 2022, fearing being thrown into the Ukrainian meat grinder. "The last time Putin conducted a mobilization, there was a significant brain drain, and we also saw Putin's popularity drop sharply," he said.
An attack on NATO would be a serious mistake, Jonson added: "We are very determined to keep every inch of allied territory safe."
"The idea of breaking the stalemate in Ukraine by expanding the war to NATO countries in the Baltics might be tempting but dangerous for Putin," said senior German lawmaker Norbert Röttgen. "It would be a huge and additional risk for Putin if, after insufficient success against Ukraine, he simply adds another very strong adversary in a military conflict," Röttgen said.
However, Putin is known for taking big risks, he added: "Despite my doubts, we must also consider that Putin behaves irrationally and escalation-prone."
German Defense Minister: “In 2029, Russia will be able to attack a NATO country”12.06.24, 17:31