Concerned about Russia's enormous military spending since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the three Baltic states are developing emergency action plans that could see hundreds of thousands of people flee in the event of a Russian military buildup or attack, Reuters reports, writes UNN.
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Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have long expressed fears to other NATO countries about possible Russian aggression, citing Russian cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and incursions by Russian fighter jets and drones in recent months.
Russia says it has no plans to attack NATO. However, the three countries, annexed by Moscow during World War II, have doubled their defense spending since Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, which came after repeated Russian denials of any such plan.
"The threats can be varied," said Renatas Požela, who, as head of Lithuania's fire department, is involved in emergency planning that has intensified since the three countries agreed to cooperate on civil defense in May.
What are the scenarios?
"Perhaps we will see a powerful army along the borders of the Baltic states with the obvious goal of capturing all three countries in three days or a week," Požela said.
Sabotage of communications or transport links, a massive influx of migrants, civil unrest among Russian-speaking minorities, or fake news that provokes a mass exodus of the population are other scenarios discussed in local media and beyond.
This year, exercises were held in Lithuania, and the role-playing game involved the evacuation of only a hundred people from the capital, Vilnius, but officials interviewed by Reuters said that contingency plans, which are still kept secret, are being developed for a much larger number of people.
According to Požela, these include half of the residents living within a 40 km radius of the borders of Russia and Belarus - about 400,000 people. In the western city of Kaunas, 300,000 people are planned to be accommodated in schools, universities, Catholic churches, and an arena where Robbie Williams and Roger Waters recently performed. Similar efforts are being made in other cities. Collection points have been selected, including in Vilnius, trains and buses have been allocated, and warehouses store supplies such as toilet paper and camping mattresses.
Those leaving the country by car will be directed to secondary roads to clear them for the approaching army. A map of cities where they can hide is available.
"This is a very encouraging signal for our society: we are ready and we are making plans," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told Reuters. "We have done our homework."
At the same time, none of the three Baltic countries has detailed plans for resettling people outside their borders, the publication writes.
Two paved roads and several forest paths connect them to Poland through the Suwałki Gap - a narrow forested part of Poland between Russia and Belarus. Arriving military equipment will have priority over those trying to flee to Poland, the publication indicates.
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"We must consider the risk (of the Suwałki Gap)," said Ivar Mai, an advisor on mass evacuation at the Estonian Rescue Department, referring to the possibility that Russian forces might try to cut off the Baltic states from their only border with a NATO member state.
Estonia is preparing plans to resettle a tenth of its 1.4 million population in temporary shelters, with many others likely to move in with relatives, Mai said.
Two-thirds of the Russian-speaking city of Narva, with a population of 50,000, are among those expected to be resettled, with the government providing assistance to at least half of them. "This is only for those who have nowhere to go," he said.
Latvia estimates that a third of the country's 1.9 million residents could leave their homes, said Ivars Nakurts, deputy head of the Latvian State Fire and Rescue Service.
"Everything needs to be planned," he said.