Ukraine starts talking about elections - expert explains what may be behind rumors of a meeting between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi
Kyiv • UNN
Information about Zaluzhnyi's possible participation in the elections and the autumn vote has not yet been confirmed. The emergence of rumors may indicate preparation for various scenarios or a test of public reaction.
Information about the alleged readiness of Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Kingdom Valeriy Zaluzhnyi to participate in the upcoming presidential elections and possible plans to hold them as early as autumn remains at the level of unconfirmed reports. At the same time, the very emergence of such rumors may indicate both preparation for various scenarios of events and an attempt to test public reaction. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by international expert, candidate of political sciences Stanyslav Zhelikhovskyi.
Autumn elections - what may lie behind the emergence of such rumors
The political scientist emphasizes that it is currently premature to talk about holding elections in the near future, as the situation directly depends on the development of events at the front.
Now we cannot say with certainty what the situation will be in a few months. As long as active hostilities continue, there is no question of holding elections. If we are talking about autumn, then this is so far only one of the possible scenarios. It is not excluded that elections may take place much later. Under current conditions, the issue of their holding will most likely continue to be postponed
At the same time, according to him, there are several scenarios for the development of events that could potentially open the way to the electoral process.
One possible scenario is that Russia agrees to move to a negotiation process and does not go for further large-scale escalation. It cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian authorities may have a certain vision of the development of the situation, which is not yet public. If relevant agreements are signed, then indeed an opportunity will open up for holding both presidential and parliamentary elections
At the same time, he emphasized that another scenario also remains possible.
If hostilities continue, it cannot be ruled out that various options for holding elections even during martial law may be discussed. This would require either changing the legislation or making a decision to terminate martial law. It is impossible to hold elections right now, so any such scenario will require serious legal decisions. I also do not rule out that this issue may be discussed with international partners and be linked to Ukraine's further European integration progress
Could the information leak have been intentional
According to Zhelikhovskyi, the very emergence of information about a possible meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Valeriy Zaluzhnyi looks rather unusual.
It cannot be ruled out that this was a kind of political sounding or a test of public reaction. If such a meeting did take place, the President had every opportunity to hold it non-publicly, without any information appearing in the media. Especially since he was recently in the UK, where nothing prevented him from discussing any issues in person. Therefore, the question arises why this information became public right now. This could be an element of political technology or a way to test public reaction. But I do not rule out another option – that the state leadership simply has a broader vision of the development of events in the coming months
Putin's further actions will determine the State Duma elections
Zhelikhovskyi believes that the Kremlin's further decisions will largely depend on the elections to the Russian State Duma, which are to be held in the autumn.
Today we see that Ukraine continues to receive support from Western partners. In Russia, on the other hand, the situation is worsening – both in the economy and in the energy sector. The fuel crisis is only intensifying, and this already directly affects the mood inside the country. If Putin decides to conduct a new large-scale mobilization, he will most likely do so after the State Duma elections, in order not to create additional political risks
In his opinion, after the parliamentary elections, the Kremlin will have only two main options for the development of events.
The first is de-escalation and a transition to negotiations with Ukraine. The second is a new wave of escalation with a tougher mobilization. But currently, Russia does not have significant successes on the battlefield. There are only isolated tactical advances, for which it pays an extremely high price – in human resources, finances, and economic losses. An additional factor is the changing rhetoric of Donald Trump and his entourage, who are increasingly demonstrating support for Ukraine. For the Kremlin, this is also a negative signal
If elections were held now
Commenting on the possible course of the future presidential race, the expert noted that today Valeriy Zaluzhnyi looks like the main favorite.
If we speak purely theoretically, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi would have very high chances of participating in the presidential elections. His rating remains one of the highest, so it would be strange not to take advantage of such a political opportunity. At the same time, he must understand that he would potentially lead the country after the war, when the state will face extremely complex challenges. He will bear a huge responsibility for the restoration of Ukraine. It is worth remembering that high ratings can change very quickly after coming to power, as society's expectations will be extremely high
According to him, the participation of the current President in the elections cannot be ruled out.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy can also run. But here the question arises whether he will go to the elections if Zaluzhnyi confirms his intentions. This would be a very strong political confrontation. If we talk about Kyrylo Budanov, for now I still perceive him more as a representative of the current ruling team, so his participation would essentially mean the participation of a representative of the President's team
At the same time, he does not rule out the return to big politics of other well-known political figures.
I do not rule out the participation of Petro Poroshenko and other well-known politicians, although for many of them the presidential campaign will be more of a preparation stage for the parliamentary elections. At the same time, one can expect the emergence in politics of well-known military figures. For example, Andriy Biletskyi could potentially try to get into the Verkhovna Rada, because after the war, the public demand for representatives of the military environment will be very high