Kremlin manipulates data on Luhansk region in attempts to seize Donetsk region - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
ISW exposed Russia's information campaign regarding the alleged collapse of Ukrainian defense. Analysts call statements about the rapid capture of Donetsk region absurd.
Kremlin's exaggerated claims of the complete capture of Luhansk Oblast are part of a broader coordinated information campaign aimed at creating a false sense of urgency to force Ukraine to cede unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UNN.
Details
It is noted that the statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding Luhansk Oblast is part of the Kremlin's ongoing cognitive warfare efforts aimed at portraying Ukrainian defense as being on the verge of collapse, in order to encourage the United States and other partners of Ukraine to force Kyiv to groundlessly cede territory that Russian forces are unlikely to seize militarily in the medium term, if at all.
The Kremlin's threats that Russian forces will "inevitably" seize Donetsk Oblast militarily or even seize territories beyond the five regions that Russia illegally annexed are not new. For example, Russian officials regularly refer to Odesa and Kharkiv as "Russian" cities. The Kremlin has been making these demands for years, but is likely intensifying them now as negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Russia have stalled due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
According to analysts, Russian claims that Russian troops will be able to easily seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast, let alone make a large-scale advance to capture large cities in other regions far from the front line, "are absurd and do not correspond to the current realities of the battlefield."
The current realities of the battlefield and recent Ukrainian achievements show that significant Russian gains on the battlefield are not inevitable, especially against the large and well-fortified cities of the Ukrainian Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.
They add that Russian forces have been unable to capitalize on their years-long control over most of Luhansk Oblast to launch a successful offensive on Sloviansk or Izium from the east or northeast. At the same time, the Russian advance has actually slowed down since early 2026, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated their ability to repel the initiative for a long time and successfully counterattack in various sectors of the front line.
Recall
According to ISW estimates, Ukrainian forces in the winter and spring of 2026 achieved the greatest successes on the battlefield since the "Kursk operation" in August 2024 and liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive.