Ukraine's energy system has managed the first hot month of summer reasonably well. Ukrainians got through it without hourly power outage schedules. However, the risks arising from abnormal temperatures remain for at least a few more months. The issue is that in hot weather, electricity consumption rises sharply. In private homes, retail outlets, shops, and government institutions, air conditioners, refrigeration equipment, pumps, ice machines, and fans are turned on. And all this is against the backdrop of scheduled repairs of a significant portion of generation and damage to networks after Russian missile and drone attacks.
Will energy workers face a capacity deficit, and should Ukrainians prepare for the severe outage schedules that were in place during winter, UNN asked experts.
How ready is the energy system to cope with the summer peak
Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at the ExPro agency, who spoke with journalists, noted that Ukraine has generally prepared well for the summer season. However, the main challenges remain unchanged: rising consumption, the repair campaign, and the risk of new strikes on the energy sector.
"Currently, I believe that the Ukrainian energy system has prepared well for summer because, of course, the summer period is not as critical or as difficult as the winter period. But certain difficulties may still arise, mostly related, firstly, to increased consumption in the system, as air conditioners are actively turned on, increasing the load on the energy system. And the second point is the repair campaign at the largest energy facilities,"
In contrast, energy sector expert and head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services, Oleh Popenko, assessed the situation more cautiously. According to him, the most vulnerable point in the domestic energy system remains covering peak loads. This requires flexible capacities - thermal and hydro generation, which suffered the most from Russian attacks.
"Most of the generation that can cover peak loads, thermal and hydro, was destroyed. It was partially restored, but we have huge problems,"
Risks and possible outages in summer: what experts say
The main risk of summer is the coincidence of several factors: heat, repairs, damaged networks, weak flexible generation, limited imports, and new strikes on the energy sector. Together, they can lead to a deficit at specific hours or in certain regions.
Electricity market analyst Daria Orlova believes that without large-scale targeted strikes on the energy sector, Ukraine is capable of getting through summer without power outages.
"If we talk about being conditionally in the state we are in now, and there are no such targeted strikes as there were before, then I think we are capable of getting through summer without outages,"
At the same time, the expert warned that the main factor of uncertainty remains the war.
"The main factor remains the war and the fact that Russia may resume targeted attacks on energy facilities. Currently, this mostly concerns regions, for example, Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Sumy region,"
Energy sector expert Oleh Popenko also considers the frontline regions the most vulnerable. There, the problem lies in the overall balance of electricity and the physical condition of networks, which are regularly damaged by shelling.
"All frontline regions are under threat of outages - temporary or permanent. There are huge problems with electricity delivery, constant shelling, the distribution system is being destroyed,"
Among the regions with the most risky situation, he named Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.
The expert separately highlighted Odesa and Kyiv. For Kyiv, the problem is related to high consumption and limited local generation; for Odesa, it is related to electricity transmission and network vulnerability.
Will peak electricity consumption in hot weather lead to its deficit and outages
Heat is one of the most provocative factors for the summer energy balance. High temperatures push people to actively turn on air conditioners in apartments, offices, hospitals, shops, and enterprises. In cities, this creates additional load on transformer substations and distribution networks.
Daria Orlova, in an exclusive comment to UNN on this topic, notes that the heat can cause both an increase in consumption and an increase in network accidents.
Now, according to forecasts, we see that Europe is being hit by a heatwave, and it may reach us. And, of course, this means an even greater increase in electricity consumption, and an increase in network accidents. Then, of course, blackouts may occur
At the same time, the analyst does not expect that under such a scenario, blackouts will necessarily be large-scale.
I don't think it will be anything significant, anything major in terms of blackouts, but such a probability still remains. In fact, it would remain even without the war, because even in Europe itself there are blackouts and electricity supply restrictions, including due to heat
Oleh Popenko, in a conversation with UNN journalists, also emphasized: high temperature quickly creates problems with covering the demand for electricity.
As soon as we have a very high temperature outside, at that time problems arise with the necessary amount of electricity. We cannot cover it, and then blackouts are possible
Experts emphasized that power outages can be caused not only by a generation deficit. Sometimes there is electricity in the system, but the networks cannot withstand the load or cannot transmit the required volume to a specific area.
It may be that this is not only the absence of available generation, but also the unsatisfactory technical condition of the networks. They are deteriorating, they cannot withstand it
Whether Ukrainians should expect power outage schedules
As of now, there is no reason to talk about guaranteed permanent schedules of stabilization blackouts across the entire country. But it is also impossible to predict that they definitely will not happen. The situation will depend on the temperature, the repair campaign, imports, the operation of nuclear units, the state of thermal and hydro generation, and new attacks.
Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at the ExPro agency, recalled that the lessons of the summer of 2024 remain relevant. At that time, the situation was simultaneously affected by both the heat and emergency repairs of nuclear power units. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were forced to live without air conditioners, fans, and the ability to store food in refrigerators during extremely high temperatures. In addition, elevators did not work in multi-story buildings, and upper floors did not receive water due to non-working electric pumps.
We have the lessons of 2024, when there were significant blackouts in the summer. At that time, the heat and emergency repairs on nuclear power units coincided. I hope that this year this will not happen. If there are no emergency repairs, then there will be no blackouts. And I hope there will be no heat either
According to the assessment of the head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services, the greatest likelihood of restrictions remains in the frontline regions, Odesa, Kyiv, and the oblasts where damaged networks or high demand can create a local deficit. The western regions have a better situation due to their proximity to import interconnections.
It must be understood that apart from the west of Ukraine, where there is enough capacity to cover imports, any region can be disconnected
Therefore, the basic forecast for the summer from experts is as follows: with moderate temperatures, stable imports, and no new large-scale attacks, schedules may not be applied or may be introduced pointwise. With prolonged heat, accidents, network damage, or a deficit of imports, hourly restrictions for individual regions are possible.
Recall
Earlier we wrote that due to heat over 35 degrees in Ukraine, power restrictions of up to four hours are possible. The most difficult situation is expected in Kyiv, Odesa, and Kryvyi Rih.