The question of possible pressure from Donald Trump on Russia remains one of the key issues in international discussions regarding the prospects for ending the war. In the public sphere, the question is increasingly being asked: should we expect tough actions from Trump against the Kremlin, and why have such steps not yet been seen?
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, an international expert and candidate of political sciences, shared his vision of this situation in a comment for UNN. He explained why Trump's cautious stance is a deliberate strategy.
Doubt about the effectiveness of pressure
According to the expert, the key reason for the lack of strong pressure is that Donald Trump is not confident in its effectiveness. In his logic, sanctions or other restrictive measures do not guarantee a change in Russia's behavior.
Trump is not yet convinced that pressure on Russia will actually work. He sees no clear evidence that increased sanctions will force Putin to make concessions.
That is why, according to the expert, the American politician is not rushing into drastic steps that could have irreversible consequences.
Risk of Russia withdrawing from the negotiation process
Another important factor is the fear of disrupting any negotiation format. According to Zhelikhovsky, Russia consistently makes it clear that pressure from the United States could be a reason for withdrawing from negotiations.
Both Russia and the United States effectively acknowledge that certain signals or agreements have already been made. This means that the parties have cornered themselves within certain frameworks and now do not want to abruptly break them.
In such a situation, tough actions from Washington could be used by Moscow as an argument against the United States.
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Kremlin's manipulative position
According to Zhelikhovsky, Russia can already appeal to the fact that it is allegedly ready for a ceasefire, but puts forward unacceptable conditions for Ukraine.
Russia can say: why are you imposing sanctions if we are ready to sign a ceasefire document? The only thing needed is for Ukraine to withdraw from the unoccupied territories of Donbas. Then the Kremlin can accuse the American president of dishonesty.
It is this argument, according to the expert, that restrains Trump from drastic decisions.
Factor of US midterm elections
The expert also drew attention to the factor of the US midterm elections, which directly influence Donald Trump's political logic. According to him, during the election period, a quick, visible result is fundamentally important for the American president.
He needs a quick result for the elections. And sanctions are a long game. This is not a tool that gives an effect here and now.
According to Zhelikhovsky, that is why betting on sanction pressure looks unattractive to Trump in the short term.
Sanctions do not yield immediate political results. Their effect manifests over time, and during an election period, this does not work for one's image.
He emphasized that Trump is interested in demonstrating success that can be quickly shown to voters.
He needs to show that he is capable of achieving results quickly. If he doesn't see the possibility of quickly reaching an agreement, then he won't invest resources in this direction.
The war may continue
Despite Donald Trump's attempts to strike a "quick deal," the expert points out that there are currently no grounds to expect a swift end to the war.
I see no prerequisites for hostilities to cease in the near future. There is a high probability that they will continue into 2026.
According to the expert, reports of Russia's preparation for offensive actions in spring and summer only confirm the absence of a real desire to negotiate.
This demonstrates that Russia is ready to continue the war, even despite economic problems, manpower shortages, and other difficulties. For Ukraine, this will be a very difficult period. Although I do not rule out that we will get a certain window of opportunity for a ceasefire, at the moment this seems unlikely.
Thus, Donald Trump's caution regarding pressure on Russia is explained by a combination of pragmatism, fear of disrupting the negotiation process, and doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions. At the same time, such a strategy guarantees neither an end to the war nor a real compromise.