Ukraine and Russia are currently showing conflicting signals regarding the prospects for peace – Donald Trump declares the parties' readiness for an agreement, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes the Kremlin's dragging out of the process. UNN has gathered the positions of military and political experts to understand whether there are real prerequisites for ending the war.
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Experts agree that even amidst talks of negotiations, the situation at the front and internal processes in Russia indicate preparation for a protracted confrontation, not a quick peace. At the same time, the very absence of a decision on general mobilization leaves a window of opportunity for ending the war.
Military bloc - Russia is preparing for a long war, but there are nuances
Against the backdrop of political statements, the military situation shows a different reality. Russia plans to recruit more than 400,000 additional military personnel in 2026.
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko notes in a comment for UNN.
This is a fairly standard indicator. Starting from 2023–2024, Russia recruits more than 400,000 personnel annually. This is enough to compensate for losses throughout the year
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However, the key problem is not only the quantity, but the structure of losses.
Currently, 60–65% of Russian losses are irreversible, meaning killed. Previously, this figure was at the level of 20–25%. This is an atypical situation even for large-scale wars
Under such conditions, even significant volumes of mobilization do not guarantee stability.
At first glance, this looks like compensation for losses. But given the current structure of losses, these figures no longer work
At the same time, another military expert, Andriy Kramarov, emphasizes that Russia has already tried to implement a large-scale offensive - and unsuccessfully.
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They already made an attempt at an offensive - it was a section from Pokrovsk to Huliaipole, approximately 100 kilometers of the front. There were small breakthrough sections of 3–4 kilometers, where they tried to enter our operational-tactical rear, but this did not yield a strategic result
Regarding the new mobilization, the expert is also skeptical.
Last year they mobilized approximately 25–30 thousand per month - that's about 360 thousand per year. That is, now they are increasing, but not critically. This is not a factor that will radically change the situation
Despite this, the intensity of hostilities is only increasing.
If earlier there were 120–130 combat engagements per day, now it reaches 200+, there was even a day with 237. Accordingly, losses are also growing
At the same time, both experts agree that without general mobilization, the Russians have no reason to continue the war. Only a large mobilization can yield results on the battlefield.
Political bloc - are negotiations possible in the near future
Despite statements about a possible peace agreement, the real negotiation dynamics look much more complex. The parties' positions remain fundamentally incompatible, and compromise is distant.
International expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky explains in a comment for UNN:
Frankly speaking, now we see more political statements than real prerequisites for agreements. Russia does not demonstrate readiness for compromise, and Ukraine is not ready for capitulation. Therefore, it is premature to talk about a quick end to the war
He adds that the Kremlin is trying to balance between war and maintaining internal stability.
Putin is trying to maintain a balance: on the one hand - to wage war, on the other - not to create a feeling of total mobilization for Russian society. That is why he avoids open harsh decisions that could cause social tension
According to him, negotiations are possible only under external pressure.
Washington can increase pressure on Ukraine, for example, by limiting military aid. In this case, Kyiv will face a difficult choice: either continue the war in more difficult conditions, or agree to compromises
At the same time, even if an agreement is reached, its stability raises doubts.
Even if an agreement is reached, it will not necessarily be long-term. Russia can use the pause to recover and return to aggression again
Mobilization will solve everything - will the Kremlin take this step and what does it mean for peace
Today, the issue of peace directly depends on the Kremlin's decision on mobilization. This is the key factor that will determine the further development of events. If Russia continues to try to fight without full-scale mobilization, its resources will gradually be depleted, which will push it to seek negotiation options.
Putin will delay the decision on mobilization as much as possible, because after its announcement, it will no longer be possible to hide the scale of losses
At the same time, another scenario means the continuation of the war.
Without general mobilization, Russia will not be able to radically change the situation at the front. But if it goes for it - it will be a signal that the war is only dragging on
Thus, peace is indeed possible in the near future - primarily due to Russia's lack of significant military successes. But if the Kremlin decides on full-scale mobilization, it will be a clear sign that the war is not ending, but entering a new, more protracted phase. This is currently the key decision that the Kremlin is essentially considering.