Former US President Donald Trump on Sunday overtook Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill pre-election poll. As of Sunday, Trump has a 52% chance of winning the presidential election, while Harris has a 42% chance. This was reported by The Hill, UNN.
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Since the end of August, the election forecast has estimated Harris's chances of winning at about 54-56%, and Trump's at about 44-46%. However, in early October, this dynamic began to change. And now, the poll shows that the chances of both candidates will be close to 50 percent.
On October 17, both candidates had equal chances of winning. On October 20, Trump gained the upper hand.
It is noted that the change in the forecast in favor of the former president is due to an improvement in his average in Wisconsin and Michigan, two states that had previously tilted slightly in favor of Harris. Trump already has a slight advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
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Of the seven states that could be decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, only Pennsylvania still favors Harris on average in polls.
Nevertheless, according to the forecast, the race remains unpredictable, as polls in all seven states remain within the margin of error, meaning that inaccuracies in the polls could change the results in either direction.
At present, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear advantage in enough states to win the required number of electoral votes.