The EU is facing a gas shortfall this winter that could force it to try to replace lost energy supplies equivalent to the amount used by 12 million households. Politico reports this, citing relevant reports, writes UNN.
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The shortfall, it is noted, raises the prospect of higher electricity bills and forced energy-saving measures this winter if the bloc is unable to find sufficient supplies elsewhere.
"As the war with Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies, the EU faces an overall shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic meters of natural gas this winter, approximately 7% of the bloc's needs and enough to provide electricity to 10 to 12 million European households," according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S. energy think tank.
These findings, it is noted, are echoed in a key report by Europe's leading association of gas network operators, which was presented to national energy officials on Thursday, October 8.
Natural gas is widely used to heat Europe's buildings, power its industry, and generate electricity. But EU gas storage levels have fallen to their lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011, at just above 70%, after high prices made it more attractive for traders to sell gas in the summer rather than store it for use in the winter.
IEEFA found that gas prices are near a four-year high, while supplies are constrained by the U.S.-Israeli war in the Middle East, leaving Europe with limited supply options if the coming winter proves as cold as the previous one.
Although this does not necessarily mean that the bloc will run out of gas, it does mean that there could be 7 billion cubic meters less gas in storage available for use. This could force countries to purchase gas at high prices on increasingly volatile global markets or even require consumers to reduce demand if new supplies are unavailable.
Record-low EU storage levels leave the bloc "with a smaller buffer" against global supply disruptions, making it "vulnerable to price spikes." This was stated by Ana Yaller-Macariewicz, IEEFA's lead European energy analyst. If countries have to deplete this year's reserves, it will also create a need to replenish stocks next year, perpetuating the vicious cycle of low inventories and high prices, she added.
The same risks were outlined in the 2026–2027 winter supply outlook published on Thursday by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G), an association of gas operators. The report warns that if liquefied natural gas imports are limited or even "optimal" during a cold winter, storage levels could fall to 11%, the baseline level required for strategic reserves that are not readily available for use.
If countries hope to restore their reserves to 30% by the end of winter—or face an increased risk of future cold spells—volumes equivalent to 7% of demand will have to be either cut or simply withheld from consumers, ENTSO-G warns.
Partly, the publication writes, this pressure stems from the upcoming ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG supplies across the EU, which is due to take effect in January and, according to the IEEFA report, will reduce gas imports to Europe by a further 7 billion cubic meters. Russian gas was traditionally used to offset "demand fluctuations" during the winter, the report says. "Europe now depends on storage facilities to get through the winter," the report states.
Even worse, according to an IEEFA report, gas demand during the winter has risen sharply over the past two years, while imports into the bloc have remained flat. As a result, the EU relied more heavily on its reserves during the winter period, and net withdrawals from storage in January this year reached 22.6 billion cubic metres, compared with 18.8 billion cubic metres in January 2025 and 17.8 billion cubic metres in January 2024.
The alternative would have been to import new LNG, a seaborne fuel that the EU is increasingly purchasing from the United States. But at current prices, importing the volumes lost will cost Europeans an additional €3 billion, 12% more than the same volume would have cost last year, on top of already sky-high prices, according to the report. US LNG production is also operating at near-full capacity, meaning that these additional imports will further reduce supply, Yaller-Makarovych said.
For some, higher prices are more likely. Although ENTSO-G’s tight-market scenario envisages a "global shortfall," implying a 20% reduction in LNG imports to Europe, Laurent Ruseckas, a senior gas market analyst at S&P Global Energy, argues that storage levels may fall only to a certain point, "because a rapid drawdown at the beginning of winter will drive prices higher," prompting cargoes to flow to Europe from Asia.
"There is no large demand in Europe that could be destroyed," he added, noting that the war in Ukraine has already destroyed 20% of the bloc’s industrial demand. "And it has not recovered," he noted.