The 17th package of sanctions introduced by the European Union has only just come into effect, and work has already begun on the next one, which, according to European leaders, will be "large-scale". However, now the EU's capabilities are significantly limited against the background of the fact that the United States wants to distance itself from this situation, writes UNN with reference to Radio Free Europe.
Details
Will new sanctions be effective?
The cards we still have to play largely include measures for which we will need the United States. In particular, this will concern the removal of Russian oil and gas from world markets in large volumes
He also added that countries such as India, China and Turkey will not stop buying Russian fossil fuels without the burden of US secondary sanctions.
On May 10, European leaders threatened Russia with "massive" sanctions if Moscow did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by Washington. They stated that they put forward their demand after agreeing it with US President Donald Trump.
It was supposed to look like a turning point, but the obvious transatlantic consensus quickly went downhill.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not commit to a ceasefire during a telephone conversation with Trump on May 19, but Trump praised the conversation and did not appear ready to announce new US sanctions. He stated that their introduction now could jeopardize negotiations and "make the situation much worse."
What is the EU capable of?
Hilgenstock distinguishes between countries that use Russian LNG for economic reasons and countries such as Hungary and Slovakia that will oppose import bans due to their close political ties with Moscow.
Even if economic objections can be overcome, political considerations may also delay or complicate a significant strengthening of sanctions in this area.
European leaders have suggested that the next package of sanctions will include the energy sector, but this is a broad term. Some have also proposed financial measures.
It's quite unclear what they're actually talking about. Are they overestimating what they can offer? I think so
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gave some hints in her speech on May 16 as to what might be next.
"Work will be carried out to include more vessels of the Russian shadow fleet on the list," she said, referring to vessels without a clear owner that are used to circumvent restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum products.
The 17th package of sanctions, together with the British measures announced on the same day, has already added dozens of ships, following the pattern of previous packages. Thus, adding new vessels would look like further cumulative actions, rather than something bold and new, Hilgenstock believes.
Von der Leyen also mentioned lowering the price cap on Russian oil. This is another punitive measure introduced after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But this will also require US approval for global enforcement.
Also, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaya Kallas wrote on social media that "additional sanctions against Russia are being prepared". Against the background of these statements, the failure to introduce truly decisive measures may lead to a loss of Ukraine's trust in its European partners, experts believe.
Addendum
The American newspaper The New York Times wrote that US President Donald Trump said that Ukraine and Russia would have to negotiate peace on their own. He refused to put pressure on the Kremlin and new sanctions, seeking to conclude business deals with the Russian Federation.