Global security in the coming decades will be shaped by new alliances, technologies, and the resilience of societies. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, highlighted key trends that have already manifested in Russia's war against Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, and which will determine the nature of future global conflicts. This is reported by UNN.
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Key trends that have already manifested in Russia's war against Ukraine and in the Middle East, which will determine global security in the coming decades. A new "axis" of cooperation is forming: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are deepening bilateral relations. Individual players from the Global South are also joining in
Kovalenko calls the resilience and stability of society the next important factor. Ukraine and Israel have demonstrated that the ability to mobilize the population, maintain critical infrastructure, produce their own unmanned systems, and conduct information warfare are key, not auxiliary, elements of national security. At the same time, Moscow is trying to undermine European unity through sabotage and disinformation, increasing attacks on critical infrastructure.
The third factor is technology, which is radically changing the nature of war. The massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles makes armored vehicle maneuvers almost impossible, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost more than 30% of its units due to drone attacks. Artificial intelligence is already being used for automatic target recognition, strike planning, and the creation of attack and interceptor drones, which speeds up decision-making on the battlefield.
War is entering new domains. Space and cyberspace are no longer secondary – more than 10,000 satellites are already changing the balance of power, and the potential of cyberattacks to sabotage critical infrastructure can be no less dangerous than a missile strike
According to Kovalenko's forecast, the world is moving towards a scenario where states must be ready to wage two major wars simultaneously. The conflict in the Taiwan Strait could provoke the Kremlin to intensify actions in the Baltic, regardless of the war in Ukraine, and the coordination of Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang creates the potential for multi-front threats to NATO and allies in Asia.
The future of war is not separate campaigns, but complex clashes where industry, social resilience, technology, and international alliances will determine not only the winner on the front, but also the very architecture of global security