ISW: The Istanbul agreement, insisted upon by the Kremlin, entails draconian conditions for Ukraine

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The Kremlin insists on the 2022 Istanbul framework agreement as the sole basis for peace negotiations. This would allow Russia to veto Western aid to Ukraine and leave it defenseless.

The Kremlin continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul talks are the only acceptable starting point for potential future negotiations on the war in Ukraine. This is stated in a material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.

Details

It is noted that the Kremlin thereby demands that Russia and its allies retain a veto right over any Western military aid to Ukraine, and that Ukraine remains neutralized and defenseless against future Russian aggression.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov... stated during a joint press conference with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on August 21 that... the 2022 Istanbul talks would ensure Ukraine's security "fairly and collectively" through a group of guarantor countries, including permanent members of the UN Security Council

- analysts point out.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia, but the meeting place must be neutral21.08.25, 11:01

They emphasize that an agreement based on the 2022 Istanbul talks would harm Ukraine by permanently prohibiting it from joining NATO, imposing draconian restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, and prohibiting Ukraine from receiving any Western military aid.

The draft agreement also required that Russia and the UN Security Council, including the PRC, be granted guarantor state status, and that guarantor states should act in concert in the event of a breach of the agreement, which would allow Russia to veto Western military aid to Ukraine. Notably, the draft Istanbul Agreement imposes no restrictions on Russia's military capabilities, effectively neutralizing Ukraine politically and militarily, while protecting Russia's ability to re-invade Ukraine in the future on much more favorable terms than even in 2022

- ISW warns.

They conclude that the Kremlin likely understands that the 2022 Istanbul framework agreement is unacceptable to Kyiv, and therefore continues to use it in an attempt to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate while Moscow continues to delay good-faith peacemaking efforts.

Recall

Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that it would be impossible to resolve security issues without the Russian Federation, and that dialogue without Russia's participation is "utopian and a dead end."

Earlier, Lavrov clarified that Putin is ready to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The meeting is possible provided that the issues requiring consideration at the highest level are well-developed.

Now the signals from Russia are indecent, they are trying to “jump off” from the need to hold a meeting - Zelenskyy21.08.25, 20:28

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