The European Union is becoming increasingly cautious about enlargement, especially when it comes to countries with lower levels of economic development, including Ukraine. This is reported by Politico, according to UNN.
At the same time, experts emphasize that despite the skepticism, Ukraine remains an important candidate, but the path to membership will be difficult and long.
Europe changes its approach to enlargement
In the EU, fears are increasingly being voiced about the possible risks of enlargement at the expense of poorer countries. This concerns not only the economic burden, but also the political consequences in the future. Diplomats openly speak of an unwillingness to get "new Orbans" - leaders who can block decisions within the Union.
At the same time, interest in the EU is growing among economically developed countries, such as Norway and Iceland, which consider membership not so much an economic as a security tool.
Against this background, the question arises - what place does Ukraine occupy in these processes. International expert, Ph.D. in political science Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, in a comment for UNN, explains that Europe is indeed reviewing its approach to enlargement.
The European Union is now more focused on countries that already meet high standards - economic, democratic and legal. This includes, in particular, Norway and Iceland. Their accession would be beneficial for the EU, as they do not require deep reforms and even in many aspects surpass the average European indicators.
Ukraine will not be able to join the EU before 2027 – European Commissioner24.03.26, 18:58
Does the European Union need Ukraine?
Despite Brussels' caution, Ukraine has already significantly approached the EU. However, the key obstacle remains the war and its consequences. The expert emphasizes that the issue of Ukraine's membership is not only political, but also economic and legal.
Ukraine has approached EU membership, but it is too early to talk about rapid accession. The war is ongoing, and it is unknown when it will end. In addition, the country has suffered significant economic losses, infrastructure has been destroyed, and this creates serious challenges for integration.
He adds that Europe also assesses internal risks.
The European Union fears not only the financial burden, but also a possible rollback of democratic institutions in new countries. That is why the example of Hungary is now often mentioned as a warning.
Security becomes a key factor
A separate role in changing the EU's approach is played by the security factor. Against the background of the war and uncertainty about the US role in NATO, Europe is beginning to rely more on its own forces. In this context, Ukraine can become not a problem, but on the contrary - an asset.
The European Union is gradually transforming from an economic association into a more security structure. And it is here that Ukraine could play an important role, because it has unique military experience and is already part of the European security system.
However, there is also a downside.
If the war remains frozen or unfinished, the question arises: is the EU ready to integrate a country that is itself in a state of constant threat?
Competition and queue for accession
Ukraine is not the only country applying for EU membership. The Balkan states, as well as Moldova, are also moving in this direction. The expert notes that competition for membership is real.
Montenegro currently has the best chances among the candidates, demonstrating stable progress in reforms. Ukraine and Moldova are actually in line with the Balkans, and it is important not to lose momentum here.
At the same time, Ukraine has its own advantages.
Ukraine is a large market, agricultural potential and an important geopolitical player. But at the same time, it is also a competitor for many European economies, which also affects the position of individual EU countries.
When can Ukraine become an EU member?
According to Zhelikhovsky's estimates, a realistic scenario envisages Ukraine's accession to the EU in the medium term.
The optimistic scenario is approximately five years, i.e., approximately until 2030. But this is possible only if the war ends, reforms are carried out, and there is a stable political situation both in Ukraine and in the EU itself.
At the same time, he does not rule out a longer scenario.
There are options that this process may drag on for up to ten years. Everything depends on the pace of the country's recovery, internal reforms and the political situation in Europe.
Thus, despite the EU's caution and new challenges, Ukraine remains a real candidate for membership. However, the path to the European Union will depend not only on Kyiv, but also on changes within the European Union itself.