The European Union is reviewing its approach to the stay of Ukrainians after March 2027 – the date when the temporary protection mechanism expires. The idea of completely abolishing it has been abandoned, and instead, a reform is being prepared. This is reported by Eurlux, according to UNN.
The European Commission is expected to present a new model already in May. The decision will be of strategic importance, as it concerns the future of millions of Ukrainians in Europe.
2027 as a decision point
March 2027 is becoming a key date for all of Europe. What was a quick humanitarian solution in 2022 is now turning into a long-term policy.
The temporary protection mechanism has allowed millions of Ukrainians to obtain the right to residence, work, and social guarantees without complex procedures. However, its main problem is its temporary nature.
Brussels already recognizes that the war has dragged on, and therefore a new solution is needed that goes beyond short-term response.
Why the EU is changing its approach
Initially, it was planned that Ukrainians would gradually switch to other types of residence permits – for work or study.
However, this process has not actually started. In many countries, the requirements turned out to be complex, and bureaucracy significant. As a result, the number of transitions to other statuses remains low.
In addition, the EU fears that the simultaneous termination of protection could lead to mass asylum applications and an overload of the system.
What scenarios are being considered
The discussion in the EU is not technical, but strategic. Several options are being discussed:
- extension of protection, but in a modified form;
- transition of Ukrainians to national residence permits;
- creation of a new special status.
At the same time, a tougher approach is emerging – a possible narrowing of the circle of persons who will be eligible for protection.
Among the ideas:
- restrictions by region of origin;
- separate rules for men of conscription age;
- special status for vulnerable categories.
Some countries are already moving in this direction. For example, Switzerland has identified some regions of Ukraine as relatively safe, and Norway has restricted access to protection for certain categories of men.
At the same time, such decisions cause legal disputes – in particular due to the risks of discrimination.
Who may be affected by the changes
It is preliminarily stated that the new rules may apply more to newly arrived Ukrainians.
Those who are already in the EU are likely to retain their status to avoid a sharp burden on the system.
However, there is no final decision yet – the approach may change during negotiations between countries.
Over 4.3 million Ukrainians are under temporary protection in EU countries13.03.26, 13:29
Europe's new logic
At the same time, the approach to Ukrainians is also changing. If earlier the main thing was to ensure security, now it is integration.
Employment, language proficiency, and participation in the economy are becoming key factors that can determine a person's further status.
Europe is effectively moving from a "temporary refuge" model to a long-term coexistence model – but with new rules.
What's next
The European Commission is to present concrete proposals in May. After that, they must be approved by the EU countries.
Possible outcomes include both the extension of protection in a new format and its partial restriction.
In any case, after 2027, Europe will no longer consider Ukrainians as just a temporary phenomenon. The issue is moving into the realm of long-term policy – and the decision will determine not only the fate of millions of people, but also the future model of Europe itself.