Commenting on the State Budget for 2026 presented yesterday, September 15, economist Oleh Pendzyn noted that the main question is where to find the $120 billion needed for defense. The expert told UNN that MPs will have to "juggle" the figures indicated in the draft Budget-2026.
Pendzyn reminded that recently, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko stated that Ukraine lacks 16 billion euros to cover the deficit of the State Budget-2026.
"We heard from our people that we are allocating 2.8 trillion UAH – which is $60 billion – for security and defense in the budget, and we need another $60 billion from our partners for security and defense. That is, so that we spend $120 billion on the war. Today, we are fighting on credit, we are living on credit. If they don't give us credit, the situation will be extremely difficult. Therefore, when we talk about how to divide the funds written in the budget, let's first find out how much money is physically available. So, in my opinion, the main question, and it will definitely be: Where to get those additional 16 billion for social needs? Will the IMF give us money now? Will the IMF launch a new program with Ukraine? Or will we remain in the old one, where there are no funds left?" – Pendzyn stated in a comment to UNN.
That is, according to the economist, the question is where to find the funds allocated in the State Budget for 2026.
"That is, the main question is not how we will divide what we drew on a piece of paper. The main question is how we will collect that figure we drew on a piece of paper. Because it is desirable to divide what exists, not what we ourselves dreamed up," Pendzyn emphasized.
The expert believes that MPs will have to "juggle" the figures indicated in the draft Budget-2026.
"As a result, all those juggling acts will end with them 'stretching their legs' according to the physical availability of funds," Pendzyn added.
Government approved Draft Budget-2026 with a deficit of 18.4% of GDP15.09.25, 18:43 • [views_86683]
Roksolana Pidlasa, MP and head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Budget, recently reported that at least $120 billion is needed for defense in 2026.
"This amount includes funds from the state budget of Ukraine ($60 billion) and military supplies of weapons and ammunition through the 'Ramstein' platform, PURL, SAFE, the Danish model, and others ($60 billion). $120 billion is an ambitious goal, both in terms of military assistance in kind and for the budget of Ukraine," Pidlasa stated.
What are the chances of receiving IMF assistance?
Pendzyn noted that discussions with the IMF are ongoing. "The International Monetary Fund insists that there will be no war in 2026. As far as I know, they have not yet been convinced... If the war ends, then there should be completely different expenditures, primarily for reconstruction, not for war, and this should completely change the State Budget," the expert said.
What the State Budget-2026 provides for
In 2026, the total volume of expenditures and provision of loans from the state budget will amount to 4.8 trillion hryvnias, which is more than 415 billion hryvnias more than in 2025 (taking into account changes).
Revenues of the general fund of the state budget for 2026 are projected at 2 trillion 826.5 billion hryvnias (excluding grants and other international assistance), which is 446.8 billion hryvnias more than the 2025 figure, taking into account changes.
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko indicated that the need for external financing would amount to 2 trillion 79 billion UAH.
The main priority of the State Budget-2026 is defense and security, for which it is planned to allocate – 2,805.8 billion UAH, 27.2% of GDP (+168.6 billion UAH to 2025 with changes), namely:
• 2,355.4 billion UAH – general fund funds,
• 220.4 billion UAH – special fund funds, including 125.3 billion UAH from military personal income tax,
• 200 billion UAH – reserve (140.0 billion UAH – general fund, 60.0 billion UAH – special fund),
• 30 billion UAH – state guarantees.
State Budget-2026: where they plan to get funds
Thus, budget revenues are projected at 2.89 trillion UAH, which is 446.8 billion UAH more than last year.
Main projected sources of growth:
• revenues from "de-shadowing" - 60 billion hryvnias from exceeding total customs revenues;
• new taxes and fees, including the "OLX tax" (14 billion UAH expected), excise tax on sweet drinks (8.5 billion UAH);
• improved tax administration and debt collection (26 billion UAH).
However, these revenues are clearly not enough. Expenditures in 2026 will amount to 4.8 trillion hryvnias, and the deficit is projected at up to 18.4% of GDP (-3.9 percentage points compared to 2025).
However, these revenues are clearly insufficient: expenditures in 2026 will amount to 4.751 trillion. The deficit will be a record 2.429 trillion UAH, or 18.4% of GDP.
Problems with financing security and defense in 2025
In July, the Verkhovna Rada had to increase expenditures on defense. Defense sector expenditures were increased by 412.3 billion UAH, of which 115 billion were for monetary support of servicemen of all Defense Forces, 216 billion for the purchase and production of weapons, military equipment, and drones. The rest is for other needs of the army.
However, the media reported that by the end of this year, Ukraine lacks about 300 billion UAH for defense needs.