Electricity imports currently remain stable and play a critical role in supporting the Ukrainian energy system amid a shortage of domestic capacity, while the situation with generation within the country remains "extremely difficult." This was stated by Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, commenting on the current state of generation and prospects for the coming months, as reported by UNN.
Details
According to the expert, it is precisely thanks to imports that Ukraine is able to get through peak consumption periods without even deeper restrictions. He emphasized that European partners, despite their own market challenges, do not impose restrictions on supply volumes for Ukraine.
Without imports, it would be much more difficult. We are grateful that European partners do not restrict volumes in any way
At the same time, he noted that the key systemic challenge now lies not in the area of imports, but in the area of restoring and replacing lost generating capacities. According to Kharchenko's assessment, he currently sees no prospects for significant restoration of generation in Kyiv and Kharkiv.
The situation is extremely difficult, critically difficult. There are no prospects for significant recovery in Kyiv and Kharkiv. At least, not yet
As one of the directions that is already actively developing and can help solve the situation with energy supply within the country, Kharchenko named cogeneration projects. However, he warned: even in an optimistic scenario, their effect will not cover a significant part of the losses.
According to him, it is about the possibility of replacing approximately 20-25% of what was lost. Additionally, under certain conditions, the country can restore another approximately 25-30% of capacity, but it is too early to talk about this as a guaranteed result.
The reason is the scale of destruction and the duration of restoration work. After all, at some facilities, the consequences of previous attacks are still being physically eliminated, including clearing rubble after strikes.
Kharchenko separately drew attention to the role of coal generation in the national balance and to the fact that much will depend on the pace of restoration of capacities operated by DTEK. He noted that the company has significant equipment needs, relevant requests have already been submitted to partners, and work on supplies is ongoing.
However, the key bottleneck, according to the expert, remains speed: Ukraine has limited time resources, and the pace at which some partners are ready to move does not meet real needs.
They offer us help, they want to help us, but the speed does not suit us, because we have too little time
Speaking about the near future, the expert noted the seasonal factor: with improving weather conditions and increasing insolation, solar generation can play a significant role in the daily balance. In his opinion, when solar power plants start working fully during the day, daytime restrictions will either become minimal, or on sunny days they may quickly cease.
Solar generation, as soon as it starts working fully during the day, then during the day the restrictions will be either minimal, or on sunny days they will be stopped
At the same time, he noted that the situation depends not only on the weather, but also on the security factor, in particular the risks of attacks on high-voltage networks, which can affect the ability to transmit electricity from generation sites to consumers.
According to Kharchenko's assessment, more than 7 GW of solar panels are installed in Ukraine in various formats: from industrial solar power plants to rooftop systems of households. Such a scale, according to the expert, makes solar generation especially effective precisely during daylight hours, when it is able to significantly "pick up" consumption.
However, Kharchenko emphasized: by strengthening the role of solar power plants, the country may face a paradoxical problem. During the day, there will be enough electricity or even an excess, but in the evening the deficit will return. Because of this, Ukraine risks finding itself in a situation where during the day it will have to limit the operation of solar generation, and in the evening hours, reintroduce shutdown schedules.
We will very soon find ourselves in a situation where during the day we will have to turn off solar generation, and in the evening we will start the shutdown schedule again
That is why, the expert concluded, one of the priorities for the near future should be to increase battery complexes and energy storage systems. This will allow to "take" daytime generation, store it and use it during evening peaks, reducing the need for restrictions and increasing the stability of the system.
Recall
Earlier, YASNO CEO Serhiy Kovalenko explained why the amounts in electricity bills increase during power outages. This is influenced by the starting current of equipment, individual consumption habits, and untimely submission of meter readings.