Belarus is rapidly sinking into Russia's economic orbit, and this dependence already covers key sectors – from energy and trade to finance, investment, and the defense industry. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, writes UNN.
In foreign trade, Moscow's dominance has become decisive: the lion's share of Belarusian exports goes to the Russian market, and approximately another quarter goes to third countries, but using Russian infrastructure. Logistics access to ports, railway routes, and tariffs are effectively determined by the Russian side, making up to 90% of exports critically dependent on the Russian Federation.
It is noted that financial integration has also deepened in recent years. After sanctions against the Belarusian banking sector and the disconnection of four state banks from SWIFT, Minsk completely switched to Russian payment solutions. Similar trends are observed in the foreign exchange market: half of the National Bank of Belarus's currency basket consists of the Russian ruble, and changes in the Russian economy are immediately reflected in the Belarusian ruble's exchange rate.
Investment dependence shows a similar dynamic. The share of Russian capital in foreign direct investment has grown to almost 70%. Russia effectively remains the only available source of external financing for Minsk. At the same time, Belarus's state debt to the Russian Federation has reached about $8 billion, and Moscow has agreed to restructure payments for seven years, strengthening political and economic control.
The defense industry has become a separate dimension of integration. After the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Minsk increased production cooperation with the Russian military-industrial complex: at least 300 state enterprises were reoriented to fulfill Russian defense contracts.
Collectively, these processes create a situation where Minsk's room for economic maneuver is significantly narrowed, and strategic decisions are determined exclusively by the Kremlin's political and economic priorities.